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April 30, 2012

Yesterday we saw how the Big East 1st and 2nd All-Conference teams shook out as far as star ratings for the players.  We did this to see what recruit rankings were like in our conference peer group. The results for the Big East were; 1st team Offense 3.0 stars; 1st team Defense 2.5 stars;  2nd team defense 2.5 stars and 2nd team Defense 2.6 stars.

Today let’s look at what those same All-Conference teams for the ACC, our future conference, have as far as star values.  Again, I used Scout.com for the number of stars assigned to these players as HS seniors. If Scout had the player unranked (UR) then I checked Rivals.com. To make it as fair as possible I used any numerical quantity between Scout & Rivals for the averages. 0/0 scores are walk-ons who weren’t rated at all; these are very rare and in compiling about 164 players only five had that score.

Something to keep in mind here are that the recruiting services give out between two stars and five stars, they do not have a one star designation and as I said the 0* score is extremely rare. 

FIRST TEAM

Offense

QB-Tajh Boyd, Clemson (5)
RB-David Wilson, Virginia Tech (4)*
RB-Giovani Bernard, North Carolina (4)
WR-Sammy Watkins, Clemson (5)
WR-Chris Givens, Wake Forest (3)
OT-Blake DeChristopher, Virginia Tech (3)
OT-Zebrie Sanders, Florida State (4)
OG-Austin Pasztor, Virginia (2)
OG-Omoregie Uzzi, Georgia Tech (4)
C-Dalton Freeman, Clemson (4)
TE-Dwayne Allen, Clemson (4)
K-Dustin Hopkins, Florida State (3)
Spec.- T.J. Graham, NC State (3)

3.6 average stars

Defense
DE-Andre Branch, Clemson (2)
DE-Quinton Coples, North Carolina (4)
DT-Joe Vellano, Maryland (2)
DT-Matt Conrath, Virginia (2)
LB-Luke Kuechly, Boston College (3)*
LB-Sean Spence, Miami (4)
LB-Zach Brown, North Carolina (4)
CB-David Amerson, NC State (3)
CB-Chase Minnifield, Virginia (3)
S-Matt Daniels, Duke (3)
S-Josh Bush, Wake Forest (2)
P-Shawn Powell, Florida State (2)

2.8 average stars
SECOND TEAM
Offense

QB-Logan Thomas, Virginia Tech (5)
WR-Dwight Jones, North Carolina (4)
WR-Conner Vernon, Duke (3)
RB-Lamar Miller, Miami (4)
RB-Andre Ellington, Clemson (4)
OT-Oday Aboushi, Virginia (3)
OT-James Hurst, North Carolina (5)
OG-Jaymes Brooks, Virginia Tech (3)
OG-Jonathan Cooper, North Carolina (3)
OG-Joe Looney, Wake Forest (3)
C-Tyler Horn, Miami (2)
TE-George Bryan, NC State (3)
K-Chandler Catanzaro, Clemson (2)

3.3 star average

Defense

DE-Brandon Jenkins, Florida State (4)
DE-James Gayle, Virginia Tech (2)
DT-Brandon Thompson, Clemson (4)
DT-Nikita Whitlock, Wake Forest (2)
LB-Terrell Manning, NC State (4)
LB-Julian Burnett, Georgia Tech (3)
LB-Steve Greer, Virginia (2)
CB-Jayron Hosley, Virginia Tech (3)
CB-Kyle Fuller, Virginia Tech (3)
S-Eddie Whitley, Virginia Tech (3)
S-Lamarcus Joyner, Florida State (5)
P-Alex King, Duke (0/0)

2.9 star average  

Here is the comparison between our old and new conference.  From this take it shows that the ACC has higher caliber players but I think we all knew that before.

1st  Offense       BE 3.0                   ACC 3.6

1st Defense        BE 2.5                   ACC 3.3

2nd Offense       BE 2.5                   ACC 2.8

2nd Defense       BE 2.6                   ACC 2.9

 

You are welcome.

Cry Havoc and let loose the statisticians of war!!

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 





A little bit off topic, but saw a very happy Ashton Gibbs get his dipolma at his major’s receiption on Saturday. Noted some other names: Jared Holley, Nat Nix, Bill Stull

Comment by Bill Fralic 04.30.12 @ 12:25 pm

FWIW, they are exposed to a better recruiting area … unfortunately, the Northeast thru the years went from first to worst (actually it MAY still be ahead of the Northwest)

Comment by wbb 04.30.12 @ 12:25 pm

Nice analysis Reed. It’s good to see some facts behind all the noise. Wonder what it looks like when you bump it up against 1st and 2nd team All-Americans.

Comment by Atlanta Panther 04.30.12 @ 12:33 pm

One statistically important item that may be overlooked is “length of service”. Although I have no idea on how to factor that in. Although it’s not a “one and done” world, how many 4/5 leave early with no 4/5 replacements, and if I read correctly, there are only about 25 5 * guys a year. I think maybe being a 3/4 * guy who is on the radar because he performed well in his jr./sr. HS career is probably what makes most teams, and what appears that PC is looking for, especially before the * jump in the sr. year. At least I HOPE SO!

Comment by CompLit 04.30.12 @ 12:33 pm

Like to see you uese rivals as the front evaluater insead of Scout. More accurate

Comment by jamie Clancy 04.30.12 @ 12:52 pm

I noticed that to be able to compete in ACC offensively, you’d better have a QB that is 5-star.

Comment by DobieGillis 04.30.12 @ 1:40 pm

Guess who’s back?

So I’ll take the first crack at this list: to compete effectively in a better conference, you need better talent. I think we’ll agree the ACC has been perceived as the stronger conference the last few years. Here that plays itself out via stronger recruiting stats.

Another thing I wanted to discuss is on Saturday Reed wrote, In regards to Beast being a less competitive conference with less skilled players, “the only thing that matters is how that individual player is going to produce for your team with your competition.” Obviously it matters how well your players play in the games that matter. But, that statement ignores the fact that how well they play is a function of the competition they play against. You would never say, all things being equal, I’m going to take a 3* instead of a 5* because he matches up better with the 3* guys in my conference. That’s not how it works. I understand that you may recruit for a certain scheme or package, but I don’t think those strategic choices are the same as picking people based on raw skill and talent.

I think you’re painting too rosy a picture Reed. We shouldn’t be so agnostic about the recruiting rankings, because even though it’s a very noisy metric, it’s one of the best ones we have. I do really appreciate your posts though because they’re starting good discussions. If it wasn’t for your, I’d be studying for finals. That’s not something I want to subject myself to

Comment by Cavalier Panther 04.30.12 @ 2:01 pm

Penn State had 2 recent 5 star QBs — Morelli and Bolden, and neither had distinguished themselves (in fact, a walk-on beat out Bolden

Pitt’s 4-star QBs over the last decade (by at least 1 rating system) — Rutherford, Palko (Flacco wasn’t), Bostick, and Gonzalez … I assume that Voytik is being that he was an All-American

Comment by wbb 04.30.12 @ 3:03 pm

actually Gonzalez was 4-star Scout and 3-star Rivals, and Myers just the opposite

Comment by wbb 04.30.12 @ 3:12 pm

… and Bostick was 5 star according to Scout

Comment by wbb 04.30.12 @ 3:15 pm

Voytik is a concensus 4

Comment by Tony C 04.30.12 @ 3:34 pm

Since I’m not snookered on Scotch, I’ll keep this short. Good articles the past couple days Reed, good banter from the posters.

Hate to take a wishy-washy position on this, but it seems to be the best thing is a little of both.

Yes, 4 and 5’s aren’t guaranteed success, but, if I had my choice of 22 5’s or 22 3’s, c’mon, we don’t need to discuss that.

However, there is a lot to be said of coaching. That’s why they are called coachs. Learning techniques and getting stronger doesn’t end at 12th grade.

I think Coach Chryst has got the players he wants, and I think done an excellent job in a short span.

If he coaches them up, and we win some games, new conference, with some top teams, the players he wants and feels he can get will go higher also.

So, stars aren’t perfect, but, in general, they are a good barometer.

And with saying that, you can never count out the coaches impact on any player, regardless of what star he’s been given.

Comment by Dan 04.30.12 @ 3:35 pm

Yes, that was short for me!!! LOL

p.s. Great numbers crunching Reed, interesting stuff!!!

Comment by Dan 04.30.12 @ 3:36 pm

I think that discussing individual players may be missing the point. Football is afterall a team game. If you look at the lists of teams that consistently have the highest rated recruiting classes you will find most of those same names among the top rated teams in terms of win-loss records. Sure there are exceptions based of exceptionally good or poor coaching, injuries etc. But I believe that the teams with the most talent will win most of the time. That is why we need to have a strong recruiting effort to bring in great talent.

Comment by Houston Panther 04.30.12 @ 3:42 pm

Dan brings up a good point when it comes to Chryst and our specific situation. We’ve out recruited Wisconsin several times in the last decade as far as stars. However, they’ve gone to more BCS games and been a better team. I like what Chryst has done so far. We both said things were bad in the trenches, especially on offense, and he did something about it.

This is preferable to Wanny’s plan of getting 8 raw 4* D-lineman which pumped our recruiting rankings but didn’t translate to success on the field.

Comment by Cavalier Panther 04.30.12 @ 3:43 pm

I still maintain that the star system is a beauty contest…if you are asked out by big time teams, you automatically are better. Now that isn’t trrue for every player, but it does have an impact.

Safe to say, that whatever “star” level these guys come in at, our coaches had better prepare thme to play at their peak…I know wanny wasted talent and Fraud was looking to fit square pegs in round holes…I hope Chryst’s sake (I am going to use that till I drop) that his staff makes what the ingredients say they should.

How many days till fall camp?

Comment by sfpitt 04.30.12 @ 3:58 pm

@sfpitt, I can hear you allready, after Tino’s second interception in a row………..
“I hope for Chryst’s sake the back up is taking snaps!”

LOL

Comment by Dan 04.30.12 @ 6:00 pm

Wow, thanks for taking the time to put up these last few posts, Reed. I don’t have the patience to do such things.

Hail to Pitt!

Comment by Digdug 04.30.12 @ 6:09 pm

There are a lot more 4-5 star guys at the skill positions than on the O-line or on the defense. I’m guessing that means the skill position guys are a lot easier to evaluate than players at other positions, so if you’re looking for a takeaway, I’d say if your team is landing a bunch 4-5 star RB’s and WR’s, that’s a good thing, but if they’re not getting those guys at other positions, that in and of itself probably won’t doom you to mediocrity.

Comment by Jeff 04.30.12 @ 9:27 pm

DigDug – I’m fully retired now at age 55 so I have time and energy to write these things before lunch. After that? Forget it as it’s hookers, Southern comfort and medicinal marijuana until bedtime.

It’s fun to do and the best part are the respectful conversations we have on here.

Guys – heads up. I’m going to post an article tomorrow asking for topics of interest that you all would like to see written. We have a ton of dead time from now until August camp and I’m sure we want to keep stuff being posted.

Comment by Reed 04.30.12 @ 9:59 pm

Jeff – that is correct because with the “skill” positions these recruiting writers use statistics to help them rank the players. That’s why you see the RB, WR and QBs having more 4* and 5* ratings.

It’s much harder to separate an Offensive Guard or a Safety from their peers then it is for these skilled offensive players.

Comment by Reed 04.30.12 @ 10:01 pm

Dan…the line on when the second consecutive interception is off the board in Vegas right now!!

Comment by SFPitt 04.30.12 @ 10:13 pm

@Steve1….Ovie called, he said “shhhhhhh”!!!

So much for being respectful, huh, Reed???

Ha ha, just having some fun Steve1!!!

Comment by Dan 04.30.12 @ 10:26 pm

As long as Pitt gets 4 star skill players on offense and Pitt’s defense knows how to hit and tackle, Pitt will be fine. Winning in football is like a good gumbo. It takes both good coaches to teach the proper technique and coach up and good players with talent, hard work, team work and passion. Yes the stars do count but we get infatuated with them. I’ll take good coaching any day with players that have the potential to be winners. Talent alone won’t translate into success. Elite teams have both outstanding coaches and players. Talent is but one of many ingredients. Then the coaches have to know how to properly use it and mix it with other ingredients.

Comment by TX Panther 04.30.12 @ 10:28 pm

That sounds good Reed, definitely the down time has begun!!! No pigskin, no hoops!

Pens are out allready, and the Pirates….well.

Downtime is here!!

Comment by Dan 04.30.12 @ 10:29 pm

Ouch Dan. But well-deserved

Comment by steve1 05.01.12 @ 7:13 am

We’ve got the Pirates. “El Toro” strikes again.

Comment by alcofan 05.01.12 @ 7:55 am

I think stars are related to the qualitative attributes of the players as welll as reputation of the H.S. team. Size, speed, and statistics (not completely qualitative regardless of sport/too many variables/level of oppositon in high school etc.). In basketball big forwards are the hardest to determine because their skills are limited and their size overwhelms (guards and centers are a better bet).

In football stars are definitely tied to statistics and size. Like basketball these can be deceiving. I agree with Dan coaching at the high school level especially in both sports, perhaps football even more is at best below average. Fundamentals are rarely taught so a bigger man dominates simply due to his size not his skill.
I never thought Graham was a D1 football coach but I think Chryst is the perfect fit. I wish he was hired after DW things might be different now. I emphasize might because their are few certanties. One Pitt certainty in my opinion is Adams (it is now speculated that Adams is far better than Nolens and Twarski after he dominated both).

Comment by drw 05.01.12 @ 9:54 am

Cavalier – I get your points and don’t think it is all one way or the other. My thought behind these three articles has been to address some PITT fan’s negative comments toward Paul Chryst because he has gotten only three star players while other teams have pulled in some four star kids so far.

My point is that there is so much slush inside the star ranking system, inherent in itself and also in the differences between the three major recruiting sites which sometimes is huge, that it is almost impossible to accurately say “This kid is a sure star in the college level and should be given four stars as opposed to three stars”.

To me the line is almost completely blurred there. Not so much with five star players IMO because the numbers there are so small.

Part of this is what the recruits actually think of the conferences themselves. The Big conferences like the SEC and the Big Ten are highly thought of and more 4* & 5* players want to play for those teams inside those conferences. Right off the bat the Big East has been hampered with that in the past.

I expect that to change with PITT’s entry into the ACC.

Anyway, I wasn’t really trying to say a 3* is always as good as a 4* at all and I don’t think that way. If the staff has two recruits who fit their specific needs and one is a 4* and one is a 3* then naturally I want that 4th star.

But I’m not going to criticize Paul Chryst at all if all he gets are a bulk of 3* kids and wins football games.

Comment by Reed 05.01.12 @ 9:56 am

@Steve1, LOL, like I said, just having a laugh, good luck the rest of the series!

Comment by Dan 05.01.12 @ 10:16 am

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