We have had some great long discussions about the QB situation at PITT and no matter how hard we wish, or how long we hold our breath, things will shake out as they may. Given that the chances are that Sunseri starts on September 1st against Youngstown State, or that whoever starts our passing game isn’t going to be all that awesome, let’s look at what Paul Chryst and Joe Rudolph might do to accommodate those shortcomings.
I’ve read a lot of posters saying “Thank God for our running game!!” and we all know that could be our strongest offensive approach. Some fans have said they think Chryst will do nothing but run the ball and throw only when absolutely necessary. Some feel the percentage of running plays would be as high as 70%, which I thought was crazy so I did a bit of research.
Honestly, 70% may not be so ridiculous…
Depending on his personnel Paul Chryst, as OC at Wisconsin, tailored his play calling to work to his player’s strengths. That is a good thing and something that was drastically missing for the Panthers last year.
For instance, in 2011 with Heisman trophy candidate Russell Wilson at QB, you would think that Chryst relied heavily on Wilson’s good passing abilities. That really didn’t happen. Chryst had about 65/35% run heavy split last season. It didn’t hurt that he had Monte’ Ball (1923 yds; 6.3 ypc) and James White (713 yds; 5.1 ypc) running the ball either though.
In 2010 with Scott Tolzien at QB, who had a statistically similar year to Sunseri’s 2010, Chryst ran a 68/32% run first split. That year he had White (1052 yds; 6.7 ypc); Ball (996 yds; 6.1 ypc and John Clay (1012 yds, 5.4 ypc). Those are some serious horses in the backfield and that is a big ground presence.
In Tolzien’s first year starting, 2009, Chryst ran the ball 59% of the time. His RBs weren’t crazy productive as the next year but they still had Clay go for 1517 yds for 5.3 ypc average.
That is also a lot different than we saw in 2011 at PITT when we had a 55/45% split with Graham in the backfield and back in 2010 (Lewis & Graham) when under DW we ran a 57/43% split. With Stull having his good SR year in 2009 (Lewis) we went 59/41%. In 2008 with McCoy having his big year we went 56/44% to the run.
Looking back at DW’s offense I was surprised that they were so much more balanced.
Now, with Graham coming back, Bennett coming into his own and a decent chance that Shell will be able to contribute right away, we’ll probably see Chryst lean heavily on the running game. Maybe not a full 70% but that wouldn’t be too much of a reach given his track record at Wisconsin.
If the defense has fewer possessions to defend and defends a longer field, then Pitt will have the luxury of being patient on offense.
Should this combination come to pass, you should also expect lower scoring games.
AND YOU ARE RIGHTWE WILL RUN THE BALL AT LEAST 60
PERCENT OF THE TIME I THINK
TO MAKE UP FOR TINO WHO CANT THROW LONG.
And if you run the ball 100% you should be playing Gonzalez at QB, cause that kid can run too.
Seriously, Sunseri can’t stretch the field vertically, which is needed to keep 8 & 9 from stacking the box and stopping the run. After seeing the stats from the Blue-Gold game/scrimmage, Myers outplayed him going like 11 for 16 and 1 long TD pass of 58 yds. Myers CAN stretch the field vertically. We know Sunseri CAN’T and he played liked a redshirt sophomore in the Blue Gold, not a 10th year 25 year old Senior.
If Sunseri is annointed again and the team struggles to beat the first lightweight, he’s got to be sat, preferably at halftime of the first game. We have seen that horror show enough !
How ya doing guy ? Good I hope. Cheers !
Pitt can’t let games get away from them early however, since that will take them out of their game plan if they have to play catch up in a run tilted offense, and we know from experience how well Sunseri can carry the team on his back for come from behind victories already.
It will be interesting to see how things pan out. I really hope that Tino blossums under this new coaching staff. He is a good guy, hard working and a true “Pitt” legacy so it would be great to see him go out on a high note in his last season. The schedule is weak enough to allow it to happen too, guess we’ll see.
Over the first six games of 2011 Sunseri had passed for 1166 yards (194 ypg) with 5 TDs and 7 INTs. Below average passing game correct? Yet Ray Graham still ran for 893 yards (149 ypg) with a 6.0 ypc average.
In 2010 with an average year from Sunseri we had Lewis go for 1061 yards and 13 TDs and Graham go for 922 yards (6.1 ypc!) and 8 TDs.
In 2008 with Stull as a JR and not passing that well McCoy went for 1488 yards and 21 TDs.
In 2007 with Bostick as a FR and our passing game in shambles McCoy went for 1328 yards and 14 TDs.
I’ll venture that stacking the box to kill the run only truly works if the offense has below par RBs – which isn’t the case for PITT in 2012. We did see that happen a bit in the second half of last season when we had Brown and a true FR Bennett carrying the ball.
Those two combined for 4.1 ypc which still isn’t terrible even with without Graham and with Sunseri’s better (statistically) last six games (1267 yards; 211 ypg, 5 TDs 3 INTs).
That said – the overall rushing totals per yer as compared to the quality of that season’s passing games do fall in line with the theory, but does the fact that a team has a star RB produce different actual results?
I think we’ll see some pretty good production out of our offense no matter how the defenses deploy their personnel.
70 percent is not out of the question.
Another example… another team… that illustrates this to the extreme is the 2002 Ohio State Buckeyes.
Krenzel was the quarterback, a playmaker/runner more than passer (87 rating, 8.47 YPA, 9 TDs).
Clarett was the freshman sensation with 1200 yards and 14 TDa.
They ran it 69 percent of the time.
So the point is that 70 percent is a worthy goal and obviously good things can come as a result.
Chryst will certainly have the guys to carry the rock.
One of them Shell has a lot of the same as Clarett in terms of size and good but not true breakaway speed.
Again, who could be Pitt’s Craig Krenzel?
Don’t know that they have one but it’s going to be fun to watch.
It’s great fun having a powerful enough O line and running back corps to just line up and say, “we’re going to run it down your throat, try and stop us”! And then actually be successful in controling the game anyhow. I sure wouldn’t mind seeing that all year if it produces 9 or 10 wins this season. I’m just not sure that we have the big bodies required up front on the line to pull it off all season, especially if the injury bug makes an appearance again this season on the line.
I thought Stull benefitted in 09 because of the running of Shady and LSH behind a solid OL that was healthy for most of the season.
Still, you have to have an average passing game to have any success. Sunseri just looked awful in the spring game. He has the slowest release and worse, is terribly inaccurate. No improvement at all. Good lord, Myers needs to step up.
As for some clamoring for a running game, I think they’re clamoring for a running game, that comes along with becoming a winning football program again, that gets 10 wins consistently and occasionally goes to a BCS bowl game and competes for conference championships.
Really, apples and oranges.
And, with his defense at Buffalo giving up around 40 a game the last part of the season, he probably doesn’t have time to think of Pitt.
Maybe we should ask which QB has at least a little pocket awareness, which QB knows how to throw a ball away, which QB shows just a tad year to year improvement and which QB is just a little accurate….in other words, which QB is NOT named Tino. I was willing to give him another chance until I watched the spring game. Painfully familiar to most of the games he has started. I really wish he would get better.
Many on this blog dinged The Stache because his run-first offense was “boring” (although I personally saw nothing boring about watching LeSean McCoy, Dion Lewis or Ray Graham shred) and praised the “exciting” spread style of Fraud Sham (whose record was .500 with no conference championship, in a weak conference, and no BCS game–plus he quit the team after less than 1 year)
Wannstedt’s team actually played for the conference championship in 2009 and happened to lose in part because the placekick holder failed to field a perfect snap on PAT. That and two huge Mardy Gilyard returns.
WVU, Louisville, Cincy, Rutgers and USF all had the best years in their FB history during Wanny’s reign although, in fairness, none of the above have glorius FB histories.
Ok let’s say we beat Cincy that game in ’09, and we go down to the Sugar Bowl and get crushed by Florida.
Would that have made some of you feel better?
Don’t know about you but I felt lousy after the Utah fiasco at the Fiesta Bowl in our 1rst BCS game. Especially in how that creep Musberger reveled in PITT getting beat.
The Stache’s winning % of 57% is right where PITT’s all-time winning % is. 58% And the Stache led us to our first 10 win season since 1981 in 2009 which was almost 30 years since that had been done at PITT. Finally the 3 year stretch of 2008-2010 was the best 3 year stretch at PITT since the Marino years. Again 30 years.
And it also seems very strange how PITT has been knee deep in bad karma since booting Wanny aside like an old shoe. In fact it’s been downright
Twilight Zone-ish !!
1. Playing anti-Tebow Sunseri gets you nothing but another trip to Birmingham.
Instead of further alienating Pitt’s weary fan base with another dose of close 4th Qtr losses engineered by Sackseri, use this year’s weenie schedule get someone ready for 2013 where there are a LOT fewer cupcakes.
2. Teams will soon figure out that it’s safe to put 9-10 guys in the box because Gameday Tino lacks both the arm strength and the football IQ to make teams pay. His long passes have so much hang time that they resemble pooch punts.
If we instead play a guy with a better arm (Myers?), even if he misses more than he hits, just that fear will force teams to play honest defense, thus open up the running game.
ABT! ABT! Chant it with me, ABT! ABT!…
H2P
I am actually OK with Chryst playing “Wanny-ball” only with more of a college mentality
1. The reason why OliviaPitt is getting snickered at is because it’s a dumb comment.
Most Pitt fans who want to see a lot of running are doing so because of the QB issue. Tino is lot less likely to hurt Pitt if he’s only throwing the ball 15 times instead of 30.
2. If you want to get into the pro-power running v. spread debate, that Pitt-Cincy game isn’t a good example, being that the spread team won.
Though, that game was an indictment of how Wannstedt and his teams freeze up anytime there is pressure and/or success moreso than anything else.
3. Yes, it would have been better to beat Cincy (at home), win the Big East Championship, and play in the Sugar Bowl, even if it meant losing to Florida.
Which is worse, losing to Florida, or losing at home to the team that Florida stomped?
4. Any offense, including Wannyball, is exciting when it works. Problem with Wannyball is that it usually didn’t work.
5. Running the ball doesn’t necessary mean boring. Oregon has a run-heavy offense. I believe Todd Graham’s offense was designed to run the ball 65% of the time. Neither, when working, are considered boring.
6. What we are hoping for out of Chryst is an offense (and defense) designed for college.
7. The Big East has been pretty bad the past 3 years. It was decent before that. Worth noting that in 2006 (the Big East’s best year), Pitt went a hideous 2-5 in the conference. Someone’s win total may have gone up partly because the competition got worse.
Our new commit from Indiana, Dan Samuelson is 6ft 5″ 290lbs. He is being followed by a large number of schools and has offers from Wake, Illinois and Minnesota…other offers will follow.
….and yes, he is a solid student with a 3.5 GPA.
Welcome to Pitt!
The QB situation will work itself out. PC will do what’s best for the long term success, not just this season. I enjoy looking at a bunch of 6’5″‘s out there on the verbal list. Beats the 5’7″‘s and 5’8″‘s that Fraud was looking for. Would really like 2 or 3 more O-linemen, led by the big Dorian’s to commit in the next few weeks. Would be huge and pave the way for the playmaker’s to join shortly thereafter.
Pitt is trending up in size gentlemen. Gotta like it…..alot!I am drinking the mustard and blue juice and will apologize to all if I am wrong in my support, but feel real confident that Nordy made the right call in trumping Smiley on this hire.
And reasonable, our little company outing was 120 last year, and all we had were people I work with everyday!!! LOL
For every action, there is a reaction. If he’s a good coach, he’ll deal with that when and if the time comes.
