I don’t really feel as if I have a choice. I can’t avoid the discussion. Less than 8 hours to the start of college football season. Less than 60 hours to Pitt’s opening, high octane, accelerant enhanced team takes the field. And I have to write about more conference realignment. There’s a reason why many people just want 1-A football to get to four 16-team conferences, just to get it done since it is heading in that direction. But instead, there have to be long complicated dramas. Egos, and just a general mess in the middle.

I could try and ignore it. I could try not to write about it, but…

Okay… I’ll go. I’ll go, I’ll go, I’ll go.

You people brought this on yourself.

Yesterday, the Texas A&M Aggies made it official that they were leaving the Big 12/10. Terms have to be negotiated. The Aggies have to petition the SEC for membership, but it is going down.

And as we know, Pitt seems to be high on the wishlist of Texas to replace A&M in the conference. And what Texas wants, the Big 12/9 says it wants.

There is a five-member Big 12 expansion committee being headed by Missouri’s chancellor and includes Oklahoma athletic director Joe Castiglione and Texas athletic director DeLoss Dodds.

The two names I keep hearing at the moment are BYU and Pittsburgh. BYU makes sense because ESPN has the Cougars’ television contract, and ABC/ESPN is also the Tier 1 rights holder in the Big 12. But BYU may be perfect as an independent because of its ties to the Church of Latter-day Saints and its policies prohibiting the Cougars from athletic competition on Sundays.

Two sources told me today Pittsburgh continues to move up as a Big 12 target, and may even be moving into the lead. Pitt AD Steve Pederson is sending out signals the Panthers are content in the Big East.

But Pittsburgh would bring football and basketball tradition to the Big 12 as well as a large television market in the northeast. Considering Pitt makes about $8 million per year currently in TV revenue, the Panthers would probably love the upgrade in pay in the Big 12 (to between $17 million and $20 million) starting next year – as long as the Big 12 is still together at that point.

I’ve already stated that I don’t buy that Pitt bolts the Big East for the Big 9. Not with the distance. Not with the fit. Not with the level of control Texas wields over the conference. It is a factor why Nebraska left. Why Texas A&M is leaving. Why Missouri is so desperate for a lifeline. When one program so dominates a conference that it dictates terms of revenue sharing. Can control the media rights — to the point of trying to force other members to let the conference game be aired on their branded network. It isn’t healthy or good for the long-term stability of the conference.

I also don’t like the idea of becoming a conference nomad. The Big 12 just doesn’t seem likely to last. Or if there is the eventual super-conference, Pitt will likely find itself as a very attractive target for the eventual ACC group. One that fits better from an athletic, academic, cultural and geographic standpoint.

The Big 9 stability is shaky at best. Some think it is strong since it is anchored by not just Texas, but Oklahoma.

As mentioned, it’s looking suddenly like the Big 12 is dealing from a position of strength. It could lose Missouri and Texas A&M to the SEC and still be able to lure two teams (or more) to stay viable. Why? As long as the Texas/Oklahoma axis remains solid, so is the league. Fox invested $1.17 billion over 13 years just for the secondary rights. The Big 12 is going to hit another big financial home run in a couple of years when it goes out to bid. (The assumption is that ESPN will re-up for the primary rights.)

To this point, Oklahoma has shown a willingness to stay with Texas. While the schools are rivals on the field, ADs Joe Castiglione and DeLoss Dodds are close. They know that the fortunes of the two superpowers are mutually beneficial.

If Texas and Oklahoma stay bonded, the Big 12 is in somewhat of a position of power. It could raid the Big East and go to 12 or 16. Why not go get Pittsburgh and Louisville? Sure, Big East basketball great but think of a hoops league with Kansas, Kansas State, Texas, Pittsburgh and Louisville.

It would be an interesting notion. Would the Big 12 be willing to absolutely destroy the Big East this way? And make no mistake, this would be the conference kill shot.

The problem with the argument, is that it relies too heavily on Oklahoma being the willing Robin to Texas’ Batman in light of the upheaval. To agree to what Texas wants. That seems to be coming into question, very quickly as Oklahoma has a sudden position of strength and has to make a rapid determination of its future.

This time around, Texas does not hold all the cards and the Sooners have fewer obstacles in their path to another conference.

In reality, Brigham Young is the only viable candidate capable of keeping the Big 12 together. BYU would expand the Big 12 footprint and bring a national TV audience to the table, because of its Mormon following.

Yet if BYU turns the Big 12 down, the league could begin to dissemble quickly.

But should that happen, the Sooners have options.

The SEC, which invited OU to join its league last year, would likely come calling again. The league would love to make the Sooners its 14th member along with the Aggies.

But for OU, that’s a last resort.

Instead, the Sooners first will wait and see if Pac-12 commissioner Larry Scott makes another move.

OU president David Boren is charmed by the idea of aligning OU’s law school with Stanford and Cal-Berkeley; its fine arts school with UCLA and USC. Academically, the SEC can’t compete with that.

On the field, Stoops called the idea of expanding OU’s recruiting base to California “pretty cool” last summer.

With Texas A&M opening the doors even wider to the SEC recruiting Texas’ high school talent, it would be prudent for the Sooners to have another recruiting pipeline.

The Sooners were all set to go to the Pac-12 with the Longhorns last summer, until the Texas state legislature reportedly stopped the deal at the final hour.

The agreement was in place. Schedules had already been worked out, with the conference football championship rotating between the Rose Bowl and Cowboys Stadium.

This time, the Sooners may not wait around for Texas to make up its mind.

And it seems that the buzz from those in the Oklahoma range, is that the Sooners would rather look West than to the South (East Conference) or (raid the Big) East.

Go ahead, Sooners. Make the last move that sinks the Big 12.

And it is quite possible, in light of Texas A&M’s defection, that your move will be one that politically astute Texas quietly supports while also hoping that it happens quickly. The Longhorns would dearly love the Sooners to take the lead. And much of the heat that comes with it.

Should Oklahoma act upon its earnest desires and seek an invitation to join the Pacific-12 Conference — something I’m fully expecting to happen within days, if not hours — that decision could well be the killing blow to the Big 12 while also providing Texas the political cover to follow suit and ask for admission as well.

The Pac-12’s not going to ask first. It’s been down that road before, led along until the eleventh hour a year ago.

Oklahoma joining the Pac-12 would be like Nebraska going to the Big 10. It’s less about the TV market share, as it is with national reputation and following.

But what about BYU? Are the Cougars willing to quickly surrender their independence and scale back on their big plans? Cautious would be a good way to describe their interest.

They would need written guarantees from Texas about their commitment to the Big 12 — again with Texas being the center and control of the conference. They also have to consider burning their bridges with the WCC after torching the MWC last year. BYU is slated to begin playing all sports but football in the WCC. The WCC is goosed, and has made a lot of compromises worked hard to make it happen. If they blew off the WCC at the last minute they put themselves in a position where they played in 3 conferences in 3 years. If the Big 12 collapsed with someone being raided from the Pac-12 and/or SEC.

The Longhorn Network seems more and more likely to be something that forces Texas to pursue independence. They’d have to turn it into some sort of regional network if they went to the Pac-12, Big  10 or even SEC. Albatross isn’t the right word, but pushing to certain conclusion is more accurate. I suppose that the MWC would consider Texas for a Big East-ND arrangement. Improve their bowl game line-up and help their profile.

Texas Tech seems along for the ride with Oklahoma and/or Texas. Their one key is being a public institution and allies in the Texas legislature. Baylor on the other hand seems to have no real juice other than praying for the Big 12 staying together. As does Iowa State.

Kansas State is probably working hard behind the scenes with the state government to make sure Kansas can’t go anywhere without them. As for Kansas — they have to make some decisions. Like trying to set an alliance with a hated rival.

And with that in mind we present the divisive truth for Kansas City: Missouri is in a strong position, Kansas is straddling the fault line, and Kansas State is, well, a step above hosed.

There’s more. Perhaps the most interesting idea is that KU should shun any in-state pressure to tie with K-State and instead go across the state line to ask Mizzou for an alliance.

This is the part where I duck out of the way and tell you to direct all compliments or criticism toward the expert who told me this.

“It’s an A-B-C,” says A.J. Maestas, president of Navigate Marketing, which does research and consulting in major-college sports. “It’s Missouri, then Kansas, then Kansas State.”

The rub is that Missouri wouldn’t and shouldn’t join KU without a tangible self benefit because in a new college sports world where money and marketing rule above all else, virtually every expert believes MU is attractive enough on its own merits to land in a solid place.

Not exactly. Mizzou is more like Pitt. A fine complimentary piece or a good replacement, but not a stand-alone program that is actively pursued absent a need.

That brings it back to the Panthers and the Big East.

As I’ve also said, Pitt’s “no comment” to the early rumor makes perfect sense to me. It gives Pitt some measure of control and influence in the Big East on the issue of expansion. Whether Pitt has lived up to expectations or not in the conference is not the point. With its history, rivalries in the region, and market; it is one of the programs that the conference needs to be a flagship.

It especially makes sense when you add this factor:

3.) That being said, as I’ve reported before – Pederson and Pitt and for that matter, Oliver Luck and West Virginia, no longer have full faith that Big East commissioner John Marinatto is moving fast enough, is being agressive and proactive enough and is willing to make tough choices about certain schools in the conference that don’t play football. So a year ago, I would have told you there is no way Pitt will ever leave the Big East for any other destination except the Big Ten, now I’d say that isn’t the case. Pitt can certainly be had if a conference makes the right offer, I just don’t think that conference is the Big 12 for the reasons I outlined before. But if the ACC or SEC or Big Ten comes calling, that’s when the people in Providence need to get really nervous. And I’ll say this – one of the worst things this conference continually does is react to things as opposed to be proactive to avoid things. There is no way the conference powers should ever allow Pitt or West Virginia to have wandering eyes and that means they need to put together a real plan to strengthen the football conference now, as opposed to waiting to see what happens.

4.) The worst thing the Big East could do is sit still or wait until some of the other pieces are in place in other conferences to then try and react. Marinatto has talked at length about how the conference is in a position of strength with regards to the television networks – but that’s a pipe dream unless the conference can redefine itself before negotiations. Pitt wants to stay in the Big East, but the conference is also running the risk of losing perhaps its most loyal member if it doesn’t begin to actively pursue some solutions to the issue that confronts the conference.

So with Pederson, Luck and of course Pernetti at Rutgers all increasingly allied against Marinatto. USF fans are hoping their AD has moved to this place as well.

Mizzou would be a great fit for the Big East. Another program looking for one of the big boys to tap them.

Frank the Tank looks at the options for the SEC and reaching team number 14. He concludes that the choices aren’t nearly so vast — especially if the SEC does have a deal not to take teams from states where they already have members. It seems to come down to WVU or Mizzou.

My somewhat educated opinion is that the ACC is going to stay intact, so it’s going to come down to a choice between West Virginia and Missouri for the SEC.  Mizzou has the advantage in TV markets and recruiting areas, while West Virginia has the edge in cultural fit and fan base intensity.  If I were in Mike Slive’s shoes, I’d choose Missouri, but I’m getting the impression that Mizzou may stick around the Big 12 minus 2 minus 1.  That’s what happens when your university president heads up the Big 12 expansion search.  As a result, West Virginia is who I’d wager on becoming SEC school #14.

For what it is worth, I agree with Tank on most of his view on the ACC. UNC won’t leave the ACC. I am not so concrete in his view of Virginia Tech staying in the ACC, but it would not be an easy move for them.

The fact is that conference realignment will continue to lurch along in fits and starts. There isn’t going to be a massive upheaval in one year. It will just keep with the little shuffles.

For the time being, Pitt has to just keep the pressure on the Big East to make the conference stronger.