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June 21, 2011

Fun With Numbers…Pitt vs. Penn State

Filed under: Football,Numbers — Fear the Stache @ 4:52 pm

It has been 7 days since it was announced that Pitt and Penn State will renew their rivalry for 2 years in 2016 and 2017.  We’ve had 7 days to ponder the arrogance of Penn State AD Tim Curley’s comments on 93.7 The Fan and 7 days to discuss the reasons the series won’t last longer than 2 seasons.  We’ve heard Pitt needs Penn State to fill Heinz Field, Penn State needs a true rival, Penn State can’t do home-home series because it is in a tight “financial” situation (which doesn’t happen if you promote something other than Women’s Volleyball as your #2 sport), Pitt isn’t a worthy opponent for Penn State, JoePa refuses to play Pitt, along with many others tall tales.  Fellow babysitters, The Incline Blog Staff, even their take on this the other day right here at Pitt Blather.

But that is not why we are here today.  Today, we’ll look beyond these issues and examine the finer details surrounding the rivalry since it last took place on September 16, 2000.

The rivalry began on November 6, 1893.  There have been 96 meetings between the 2 teams.  Penn State has won 50, Pitt 42, and the remaining 4 games ended in a tie.  When Joe Paterno was born in December of 1926, the teams had only met 29 times.

For Penn State, Pitt is still their most played opponent.  When the series ended in 2000, Pitt could say the same thing.  However, since then WVU has become their most played opponent at 103 games.

10 years, 5 months, and 9 days have passed since the last game.  That is 3930 days, 94,320 hours, 5,659,200 minutes, or 339,552,000 seconds.  In that time, Penn State has finished with 3 11-win season.  Pitt’s highest win total was 10, only reaching that peak once.  However, Pitt has never finished below 5 wins during this time.  Penn State finished with a 3 and a 4 win season.  When it’s all totaled up, Penn State has gone 84-72, while Pitt has gone 82-74 (these both include the full 2000 season).  This comes out to a 1.28 winning percentage edge for Penn State.

Both teams have also shared their respective conference championship twice but neither team has won their conference outright.  Penn State is 1-1 in BCS bowls, Pitt is 0-1.  Expanding on the bowls, Pitt has gone to 8 bowl games in this span (4-4) while Penn State has gone to 7 (4-3).

Penn State has had 8 first round draft picks during this time, compared to Pitt’s 4.  Each team has produced a Heisman Trophy finalist in that time with Larry Johnson finishing 3rd in 2002 and Larry Fitzgerald finishing 2nd in 2003.

Since 2000, Pitt has gone through 4 football coaches while Penn State has obviously had only Joe Paterno.  When the teams last met, Walt Harris was the head coach.  Walt has since “resigned” from Pitt to take the Stanford job, where he was fired after only 2 seasons (6-17, 26.1% is the lowest winning percentage in Stanford history).  He then moved on to work with quarterbacks in Akron and then became the offensive coordinator at California University of Pennsylvania.

When the teams last met, Dave Wannstedt was just beginning his first season as head coach of the Miami Dolphins.  Mike Haywood was a running backs/special teams coach at LSU and had a shorter arrest record.  Todd Graham was finishing up his final season as a high school coach in Allen, TX before moving onto WVU the following season.

When Pitt and Penn State last met, JoePa was 73, Heinz Field had not yet opened, Tyler Palko was still in high school and attending the game as a recruit, the iPod had not yet been invented, Bill Clinton was still president, no Harry Potter movies had yet been released, “Bring It On” was one of the top movies, Madonna actually had a #1 single, Jay Leno was still the host of “The Tonight Show” (oh, wait…), and the Summer Olympic Games in Sydney, Australia were just beginning.

But let us take a look into the future…into the year 2000 and 16

When these two teams meet again in 2016, 15 years 11 months 25 days will have passed.  That comes out to 5,838 days, 140,112 hours, 8,406,720 minutes, 504,403,200 seconds…or 12,610,080 times Dave Wannstedt would have called for a knee to run out the 40 second clock because he doesn’t believe that the team can score before the half.  No incoming freshman this season will even be playing in this game (unless granted a 6th year of eligibility).  In fact, it is probably a safe bet to say that no player on either team will be old enough to remember the last time these two teams met.  Hell, by that point, we should have flying Delorians, hoverboards, and food processors that create a nuclear fusion reaction.

Yes, I just threw a lot of numbers and statistics out there.  What does it all mean?  Probably not a whole lot.  If we can take anything out of this though, it’s that no one can say that Penn State is a superior team.  They are just a team that averages finishing in the middle third of the B1G Ten conference (4.45th place of 11) as is Pitt in the BIG EAST (2.66th place out of 8).  If that’s not enough and a Nitter continues to talk trash, you can give them the best numbers of all…





Off topic, but I came across this nice piece on Pinkston. Pretty high expectations, but I think he’s up to it.

link to cle.scout.com

Comment by Greg in New Orleans 06.21.11 @ 5:10 pm

To tell the truth, I can take it or leave it. They are not rivals any more – 16 years between games is not a rivalry. Maybe if they announced that the series is on I would be less apathetic, but that two game set leaves me underwhelmed.

Don’t get me wrong, it will be great to beat them en route to Todd Graham’s second national title winning season at Pitt …

Comment by Chuck Morris 06.21.11 @ 6:45 pm

Penn State has us beat on stability. I will give them credit for that. I think that is more of a key to their success on the field over their 4 stars, their 100k stadium, their huge fan base, and their conference. Don’t get me wrong, those other things count. But, since this rivalry ended, the Big 10 hasn’t been what most Nitters thought it would be. Their overall body of work is similar to Pitt as pointed out above. They have been dominated by tO$U and Michigan. They only think of them as rivals because they are bitter for having been butt whipped year after year. If Pitt can learn anything, its that historic rivals do matter and stability in a coaching staff is key. Thank you WVU. Thank you Nordy and yes Stevie P…in some ways and to a certain ex
tent. Hopefully Graham can win and see Pitt not as a stepping stone but as his future where he can become a living legend much like JoePa until he over stayed his welcome and started pooping his pants.

Comment by TX Panther 06.21.11 @ 7:09 pm

I look forward to every PSU discussion just to see how “poop his pants” gets worked in.

Comment by OhHowIHateOhioState 06.21.11 @ 9:20 pm

Ed Dechellis had to leave for us to get a game with them.

Comment by alcofan 06.21.11 @ 9:36 pm

Tx, that stepping stone thing is over rated. (not you using it) just the general term.

If, I’m just saying if, ok, say Graham does ok this year, then the next 3-4 years has Pitt in the top ten and say, BCS bowls 3 out of 4 years, when the contract is due, it will be upto Pitt to pay the piper. If they win, attendance goes up, BCS bowls, it will be upto Mark and Smug Smile Steve to not make Pitt a stepping stone.

Again, don’t pummel me with posts, a huge if, just making a point about not being a stepping stone.

Look at Jamie, Pitt is no stepping stone in hoops!

Comment by Dan 06.21.11 @ 9:38 pm

neither mark or steve will be here bank on that

Comment by paul shannon 06.21.11 @ 10:06 pm

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Comment by Stolaquaxsalt 06.22.11 @ 3:56 am

OhHowIHateOhioState, apparently that phrase in your post was introduced by you in this discussion, and still the only reference some 14 hours after the initial post here.

Comment by wbb 06.22.11 @ 7:19 am

I agree Dan. If Graham leaving is because a Big 12 or SEC team wants him based on his record and accomplishments, that probably means Pitt has won the conference a few times and maybe a BCS game or two. Maybe he stays and falls in love with the place or maybe he moves on to a higher profile gig. There will always be places with more name recognition, etc. than Pitt, but if a coach can be successful, the administration supports him, the fans come out, and the area remains a semi-fertile recruiting ground, Pitt could help make a coach into a legend. Pitt doesn’t have many legendary coaches and teams. Graham could start something and leave his mark on the program for years to come…in a good way. Jamie Dixon is well on his way. All I can say is that I’m excited about the team this year and I’m looking forward to 2016. If JoePa is still coaching, I’ll make sure to bring the Depends.

Comment by TX Panther 06.22.11 @ 7:48 am

Paul Shannon, where will they be, is Smug Smile Steve going back to Nebraska?? LOL

Comment by Dan 06.22.11 @ 8:57 am

Interesting article in the USAToday on Prep School All-Star games, and QB Chad Voytik has 15 offers and had narrowed his choices down to Miss. State and Pittsburgh.

link to highschoolsports.net

Comment by markp 06.22.11 @ 9:20 am

Dan – Nordenberg has talked about retiring in the next couple of years. There has been speculation in the press (take that for what it is worth) that Pederson might not survive a change in the upper administration at Pitt.

Comment by Pantherman13 06.22.11 @ 10:15 am

Dan / Tx Panther, FWIW, since I began following Pitt FB back in the late 60s, there were only 2 head coaches that were hired to more attractive positions (Majors and Sherill.) I believe everyone else were either fired or (forced to) resign.

However, even if Graham goes onto a better position, there is no guarantee that Pitt will benefit in the long run. Note that Brian Kelly on the BE title the last 2 years he was here but not only was he blown out in both BCS bowl games, there is no indiation that he left much for his predecessor being that Cincy finished last in a weak league.

Winning a title in a weak league can be much different than building a program.

Comment by wbb 06.22.11 @ 10:46 am

Mark will be retired next year, steve 2,3 big businees

Comment by paul shannon 06.22.11 @ 11:51 am

Not doubting you, wanted Smug gone for awhile. Then, it will be up to next people to decide to make it a stepping stone, or not. Whoever.

Comment by Dan 06.22.11 @ 12:04 pm

I’ve been praying for Nordy to get hit by a bus since 1997.

Comment by Pitt_Panther_1982 06.22.11 @ 12:38 pm

Whoever replaces these guys, lets just hope the hirings aren’t botched, we get the right man (or woman) for the job, and they stay for an extended period without this revolving door approach particularly with coaches. Pitt is really now running out of excuses on why it can’t win the Big East and be a top 20 program year in and out. Heck, when we play Penn State again it will have been 40 years since our last national championship in all likelihood. I barely if at all recall that one. I want to see (and remember) at least one more before I go out. Find a good AD and good coach and do your best to keep them…long term. Smug and Nordy are still better than Bozik and Posvar. I know that’s sad.

Comment by TX Panther 06.22.11 @ 1:14 pm

Well, I’ve stated my position on Nordenberg previously. In my opinion (and I know I’m not alone) he has done a tremendous amount of good for the University, particularly in terms of improving its academic standing. When he retires it will be a huge loss for Pitt.

And remember, a large part of the reason that Jamie Dixon is so loyal to Pitt is the relationship he has with Pederson and Nordenberg. If/when they leave, we had better hope that their replacements can maintain that type of relationship (although I would expect Dixon to be consulted on any new AD).

Comment by Pantherman13 06.22.11 @ 1:19 pm

Bozik, why’d you have to bring that name up, now I’m sick!!! Gotta have some people on the board that will bring someone in that likes sports or at least appreciates their value to students and the universities immage. Bring in a strictly academic, you got problems.

Agreed on Jaimie, not over selling his importance, but, he is now in a position to have input on the decision or at least the decision making process.

Comment by Dan 06.22.11 @ 1:25 pm

Fantastic article. Great post. Hats off.

Comment by Joe 06.22.11 @ 1:26 pm

FYI .. Coach Graham on The Fan 93.7FM this afternoon at 3 pm and Coach Dixon at 4 pm.

Comment by wbb 06.22.11 @ 1:46 pm

TX Panther, I ca provide you 3 primary reasons why Pitt can’t be an annual Top 20 team.

1) it is in the least exposed and most unattractive BCS conference, and as such, does not have large appeal to any recruit outside the Northeast US area.

2) its primary recruting area no longer is considered as a fertile recruiting area .. and is far behind the likes the Southeast, Southwest and California in the number of quality recruits.

3) it is in an NFL city which totally embraces the NFL team, and pays little mind to the college team … and like it or not, there is a substantial amount of alums who prefer to be at Heinz Field on Sunday than on Saturday.

Note that the above is just the opposite for the BB program.

Comment by wbb 06.22.11 @ 2:02 pm

as a follow-up to the above, do you know the the BE is the only BCS conference that got a bigger payout from the NCAA BB tourney than from the BCS bowls

Comment by wbb 06.22.11 @ 2:19 pm

I have to disagree with you a bit wbb. West Virginia was a perrenial top 20 and top 10 team for several years, and, had dickrod not left, they still would be.

Penn St and BC have been in the top 20 consistenly!!

How about Ohio St, (yes, giving cars away), but, Michigan (yes a couple bad years) but, in general, along with Iowa and Wisconsin. Don’t know too many people from TX and FLA. who have their sites set on Madison or Iowa City???? But, they get them.

These teams get recruits from all over. If you get coaches who can recruit, they will get kids from Fla. and Tx.. Are they gonna steal any that are going to Texas or Miami, no, but there are plenty to go around.

Frankly, being top 20 is not all that difficult. If you are 9-3 or even 8-4, you will usually find yourself in the top 20. Especially in the Big East, if you can build the program up just a little, you should easily be able to go 6-1 if not 7-0 every year. Throw in a couple cupcakes, and win one or two of the other three ooc games, voila! Weren’t we just ranked 15th a couple years ago??

I also feel, if Pitt can get going, Pitt, WVU and TCU could have some great games, and some games that will have national appeal. If we go to 12 teams, we will have alot more exposure also.

Not sure what you mean about the pro city thing. No, are we ever gonna have 65,000 for every game. They way I look at it, you have about 25k to 35k core fans who go to the games. For a decent game you get some wagon hoppers, (and I have no problem with wagonhoppers, I welcome them)
and get to 45k, and if you have a Tx AM, Neb, Iowa, marquee type games you might get over 50. For WVU, ND, and PSU you’ll get the sell out usually with some more wagonhoppers and fans from other teams. So, I really don’t see attendance as a problem to get to the top 20.

I mean, even if we just get 35k to 40k, if the team wins, they will be in the top 20.

Bottom line is, if you can get a coach to get you 9 wins or more a year, you’ll be in the top 20. Even with your reasons, being in the Big East and having two cupcakes a year, it really should not be that difficult if you have a coach that can recruit even just a little, and knows what he’s doing on game day.

P.S. Not criticizing, your points are valid, just b.s.ing the day away.

Comment by Dan 06.22.11 @ 3:15 pm

Maybe TCU joining will help the attractiveness along with whatever new TV deal is worked out. Pitt with Graham now has a pipeline to Texas so that should help with recruiting to some extent. I think Graham also has enough 3-star talent in the region that can be coached up but yes, WPA and the surrounding area isn’t what it used to be and never will. And, those damn Stillers need to stop winning so much. I guess we can always hope for the ACC to come calling. OK, so maybe not perennial top 20 but how about a top 10 every once in a while and sprinkle in a BCS win. I don’t expect Pitt to be competing for a national championship each year, but I refuse to go another nearly 40 years to get one.

Comment by TX Panther 06.22.11 @ 3:31 pm

Ya, TX, WPa. isn’t what it used to be, agreed. We’re all different, I guess what I would like to see in a revoliving four year window, maybe a top 10, two top 20’s, then maybe one year not in it, then back in the next, etc. etc.

I’m not foolhardy, I know we’re not Texax, USC or Florida. But, being know as ususally a top 20 program should not be that difficult in the Big East. Again, win, baby, win. Even in the lousy Big East, when you win, you get in the top 20. Couple years ago, I believe, Cincy, WVU, Pitt, and S.Fla were top 20 or top 25 at the same time.

We’re not a fashionable league, but if you win, the pollsters will put you in. Pollsters weren’t afraid to even S. Fla and Cincy in the top 5 and even number two. If you’re 9-0 or 10-0 you’ll be in the top 5.

Win, baby, win.

Comment by Dan 06.22.11 @ 3:48 pm

Dan, Please re-read my very first point in my post above .. thus, this does not apply to PSU, BC, OSU, Michigan, etc since they are not members of the BE and thus have a much better chance of recruitng nationally.

The big setback in being in a pro town is not filling the stadium consistently, thus, the reaso Prior never considered Pitt … when he has been to packed houses at PSU, MIch & OSU, why would he ever cosnider Heinz with 15 – 20,000 empty seats.

Also note that I listed why Pitt can’t be an ‘annual’ Top 20 program. Surely, we can get in there here and there .. in fact, we finished 16th just 2 years ago.

I just believe there is much delusion of grandeur by many of this site who thinks that we have a chance to return to the glory days of the late 70s / early 80s.

Comment by wbb 06.22.11 @ 4:43 pm

Remember Lytch the Bitch? Pitt had won 2 games in 2 yrs With the right Leadership No Reason Pitt can’t Be It again.

Comment by 63 Team 06.22.11 @ 10:46 pm

Great post. Pitt fans will understand….Penn State fans not so much.

Comment by TonyinHouston 06.22.11 @ 11:54 pm

I was a harsh critic of Pederson. However, he made a good move to hire Graham and I like his work on non-conference schedules. He could have saved himself a lot of grief last season if he had voiced his displeasure with Wannstedt early on. Silence only works well when things are going well. Pitt’s down times in football have usually been the result of some administrative de-emphasizing. As fans we cannot let that happen if Nordy takes it to the house.

Comment by TonyinHouston 06.22.11 @ 11:59 pm

As much as we hate him, dickrod had a powerhouse built in the Big East, especially with big wins in the bowls against Georgia, Georgia Tech and Oklahoma in his last three bowl games.

Can be done. No delusions of grandeur here, Pitt in the 70’s was like Texas and USC are now, don’t expect that.

Top 20 two or three times every 4 years, I believe it can be done.

Well, we’ll see. Could argue back and forth on this, time will tell. Good night all.

Comment by Dan 06.23.11 @ 1:07 am

Is anyone blogging about the Greentree games?

Comment by gc 06.23.11 @ 6:28 am

[…] Fighting Wannstaches wrote a great guest post over at Pitt Blather about each schools progression since 2000. Make sure to check out The Fighting Wannstaches blog as […]


Enough is enough. The rivalry was over and dead 15 years ago. Let it rest. I could give a good one over a concern on what PSU does. Playing 5 years from now means nothing and it will only be another non conference game. Why continue to feed the PSU ego? This makes good radio conversation because the FAN has nothing else to talk about and tries to stir up controversy. It is difficult to have a 24 hour local sports talk radio station you know especially when the you cannot talk about the Steelers 24 – 7 due to the lock out.

Let’s just worry about winning games now.

Comment by JP 06.23.11 @ 6:56 am

JP, you’re right but not only does radio stations depend on this stuff .. so does the blogs, like the one we are on right now. (although no doubt it does get out of hand at times)

Comment by wbb 06.23.11 @ 8:09 am

gc .. here you go link to pittsburgh.scout.com

Comment by wbb 06.23.11 @ 8:19 am

WBB – re: your comment on coaching stability. The reason only two coaches left for greener pastures is that they were the only two coaches successful enough for other teams to want.

Dan – PITT had 9, 10 and 8 win seasons over the last three years and was ranked in the top 20 only once in 2009. Those polls are highly influenced on how the team plays in the latter part of the season and when you blow big games like we did the voters factor that in also.

In 2008 we certainly were poised to be in the top 20 at 9-3 going into the bowl game… get shut out and it kills you.

Comment by Reed 06.23.11 @ 8:35 am

Reed, that was my point. There were only two successful coaches here for nearly 50 years .. and Majors was very unsuccessful in his 2nd stint. Others like Gottfried, Harris and Wanny had winning records but didn’t meet expectations.

Comment by wbb 06.23.11 @ 9:23 am

I get excited when I read about the Greentree games. If Dante becomes a scorer, the team will really be fun to watch. With all of the talent, how is Jamie going to pare it down to his 8-man (and sometimes 7-man) rotation and keep everyone contented?

Comment by BigGuy 06.23.11 @ 9:27 am

BTW, Dante Taylor may be following a pattern for Pitt centers: Aaron Gray: break-out his junior and senior years.Gary McGhee: break-out his junior and senior years.

Comment by BigGuy 06.23.11 @ 9:37 am

Big: Run run run

Comment by steve 06.23.11 @ 10:02 am

Hmmm…Hoopsworld mock NBA draft currently has Brad Wannamaker going with the 3rd pick in the second round to Detroit, and, Gil Brown going as the 25th pick in the second round to Boston…Not bad.

Comment by HbgFrank 06.23.11 @ 12:39 pm

the success of Blair & Young (at least for 2nd rounders) shouldn’t hurt Wanny and Gil

Comment by wbb 06.23.11 @ 2:39 pm

Taylor looks to be bigger and stronger this summer. He has played well against suspect competition, Dallas Green and Khem Birch. Neither of whom is any where near as strong as your average Big East center. I really hope we get to see him play against Kilicli, who hasn’t shown up yet, on Monday. Kilicli is a bull and would be a great test for Dante.

Comment by boubacar aw 06.23.11 @ 2:40 pm

Brock Dean deciding tomorrow at 11:30am

6’1″ 214lb OLB from Bishop McDevitt HS
Had 93 tackles and 19 tackles for loss as a junior.

Choosing between Pitt, Maryland, and Temple

Comment by BnG 06.23.11 @ 3:35 pm

I hope the NBA draftees tonight and Brock Dean tomorrow leave their baseball hats home. I can’t watch any of that repetitive nonsense.

Comment by BigGuy 06.23.11 @ 4:33 pm

Thanks WBB, fun read. I am guessing other than blocked shots little defense is played.

Comment by gc 06.23.11 @ 7:17 pm

As a proud alum of McD, I hope we get Dean because there are a few other super talented kids on this years FB team…If we can get dean, maybe we get one or two others.

Comment by HbgFrank 06.23.11 @ 7:39 pm

Yes I am talking about Noah Spence…C’mon Shady work that phone, twitter, or whatever else it takes!

Comment by HbgFrank 06.23.11 @ 7:49 pm

This is my first message. Please don’t delete it. Thanks
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Comment by nafFesFlase 06.24.11 @ 12:45 am

That’s what I was thinking, Frank. I had read that Dean and Spence are best friends so if Dean commits I’m sure he will have some influence.

From reading the articles, though, I almost get the feeling he’s going to Maryland.

Comment by BnG 06.24.11 @ 7:58 am

Comment by BigGuy 06.24.11 @ 2:16 pm

Dean committed to Maryland today (a Gattuso recruit).

Comment by pitt1972 06.24.11 @ 3:20 pm

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Comment by Wenesmods 06.25.11 @ 6:17 pm

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