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May 26, 2011

Let me offer the executive summary on what all the stories and updates really mean:

If you want the details, they’re after the jump.

The Big East held meetings in Florida this week. Big East expansion and TV deals were the big topics everyone wanted to discuss — well fans and media anyways.

The hot topic was how much should the Big East expand? I’ve mentioned that maybe the best thing is to stop at 9 for the moment. Since none of the candidates really bring much to the table in terms of immediate impact economically or competitively. That doesn’t seem realistic, as there seems to be a determination that the conference must get to 10 teams or is it 12? Oddly enough, Skip Holtz the USF football coach got that out there just before the meetings.

There’s been a lot of talk about do you go from nine to 10, which I don’t know how much sense that really makes, when the Big Ten left the model of 10, the Pac-10 has left the model of 10. Both of them more or less said ‘This model doesn’t work. Let’s go to 12.’ I think we have to look hard at it. Having TCU come into the league will add an awful lot of instant energy when you look at the success they’ve had right now as a program. It gives you a balanced schedule with four (home) and four (road). I think we need to look hard at going to 12.

That actually gained some traction as Brett McMurphy — who did a fantastic job of covering the meetings — did a poll of the Big East football coaches and a majority of the coaches preferred the idea of getting to 12. And ADs like Ollie Luck (and it has been intimated that Rutgers AD Tim Perenetti) seem to favor 12 to be able to have more inventory of games for TV rights. Something that suggests a strong push to make sure that the rights get to the open market.

“One of the things I really found interesting, if you followed the Pac-10 or 12 and the recent TV negotiation – and what happened was pretty eye-opening, pretty spectacular – was something (Commissioner) Larry Scott was asked,” Luck said.

“When he was asked if bringing in Utah and Colorado in expanding the conference assisted them in getting a blockbuster deal, he said, ‘Absolutely.’ I remember back when (expansion) happened, some people said it wouldn’t matter that much.

“But Larry said it brought them into another time zone (Mountain), added markets, two states. He thought adding those two schools had a major effect on what they were able to do.”

Last June, as the Pac-10 was moving on the Utes and Buffaloes, one Chicago marketing firm that works with college athletic programs was estimating that the two schools would add to the Pac-10 potential, but not significantly to a conference that already had Los Angeles, San Francisco, Phoenix, Seattle and Portland, Ore.

“What happened there struck a chord with me,” Luck said. “There’s a lesson in that for us in the Big East. What’s the lesson? Well, if you do get the right teams, the right schools, it can be a real plus. It can provide a real bump, and we need that.

“I’m not saying Villanova is that or isn’t that, or can be that. I don’t know. That’s up to the commissioner and other people in the conference office to decide in talking with the TV people. But it does tell us what might be possible if you do get the right teams.”

Is that spin from the Pac-12 to justify the new members by way of the TV contract, or would they have gotten similar value regardless? I’m not sure, but in terms of future Pac-12 inventory with their planned channel, it was probably necessary and will help.

Yes, the Villanova issue is still unresolved. Villanova partisans are increasingly stressing the issue of needing inventory to get a good media deal — and how Villanova’s media market impacts that — reflects their increasing terror and frustration over their future. Villanova fans have increasingly realized how much of the possible athletic success in the future is tied to becoming a full member of the Big East rather than remaining a basketball school. The realization probably came at least two years late, but it is there now.

Honestly, I’m not unsympathetic to them. I remember the angst of 2003 after the ACC raid and the future of Pitt. Heck, just the last couple years of the Big 10/11/12 expansion and last summer’s potential mega-conference dominoes was such a crazy situation where it seemed that Pitt’s future could go one of many different directions. But as Voodoo5 put it, “this is bigger than whether Villanova joins the league for football…”

Their point:

Then came the news today from the Big East meetings in Ponte Vedra Beach, Florida, where several people admitted that the league had a verbal agreement to extend its TV contract with ESPN and were apparently pretty close to signing it, but backed off in the end.

It turns out the decision to wait until next year to begin contract negotiations happened before the Pac-12 signed their massive contract with Fox and ESPN. So you can’t even chalk that up as Marinatto being smart enough to recognize what just happened in front of him. It’s quite possible he was forced into saying no by people like Luck and Rutgers athletic director Tim Pernetti, a former executive with CBS College Sports, who want to take the TV rights to the open market. And so now he’s kind of stumbled into this “smart” move, as the Big East is now the only BCS conference left for the taking by a host of TV suitors.

If that’s in fact what happened, that says very little about the faith some of the ADs have in John Marinatto. It could be the first step towards either Marinatto being moved out of the way by the football athletic directors (as On the Banks suggests), or the first step towards the league splitting apart and the football schools going their own way.

Marinatto has not shown himself to be a strong commissioner to this point. To some degree he never had a chance to grow his influence, because he is only a year or so into it. At the same time, it is quite clear that while he had the support of the basketball schools to get him chosen to the spot, the football side was less than supportive and are not going to let him get in a position to strong-arm them.

He’s doing his best to talk up the potential for the new contract and how he is ready to take this to the open market — now.

“There’s a distinct advantage in going last and with the marketplace continually resetting … the Pac 12 has reset the marketplace once again,” Marinatto said. “It’s setting the stage for us providing we’re deliberate and aggressive in order to monetize our rights in a fashion that’s as similar to what they’ve done.”

The scary thing in the article was the part about how close the Big East was to actually taking that early ESPN offer. There is no doubt that if that occurred, Marinatto would be on his way out the door right now — or the football members might have simply snapped.

Now there is something of a real deadline for the Big East to figure out its expansion plans. September 2012. That is when the Big East can start exclusive negotiations with ESPN for 60 days before the media rights can go to open bidding and negotiations. But, at that point, the Big East needs to know who will be the members and when. TCU will be in the conference starting that season. Who else?

The saddest thing after most of the week was dominated by the optimistic talk of a big new contract, and then Jim Calhoun opining that the conference would split along football-basketball lines in 4-5 years (something I said back in 2003, and I’m now 3 years off and counting so I’m done with those predictions). That the pushback spin coming today from what I can only assume are the Big East offices and basketball-only schools.

How about the always discussed compromise of getting Army and Navy to join as football only members? It’s back.

The Big East is now officially on the clock. The league has until September 2012 to determine its football membership because that’s when ESPN’s 60-day exclusive media rights renegotiating window with the league begins.

So what schools will the Big East add? Numerous candidates have been mentioned including Villanova, Central Florida, East Carolina and Houston. However, college industry sources told CBSSports.com the league is also considering the possibility of pursuing Army and Navy as football members to get to 12 teams.

“I believe the league will approach the academies first and if they turn the Big East down, then they’ll approach the other candidates,” a college football industry source said. “There are a lot of hurdles to overcome. The Big East would have to convince them that’s where they want to be.”

It simply makes no sense for the Big East football schools to support this. They won’t go back to that unstable 90s-era football-only situation. Troy Nunes IAM has more on this silliness. And if there is any doubt that this is a bit of garbage thrown out by old interests, former BE Commish Tranghese remembers the talks and discussions with Army and Navy from fifteen years prior.

That, however, pales to this piece from the Boston Globe.

The power struggle is football-driven, led by athletic directors at West Virginia, Pittsburgh, and Rutgers, and the presidents at West Virginia and Pittsburgh. The three schools flexed their muscles when Villanova was being considered as the 10th team in football last month. To get approval, Villanova needed six of the eight Big East votes. The vote was 5-3.

The internal bickering and bargaining has been intense, with Pittsburgh AD Steve Peterson and Rutgers AD Tim Pernetti having the loudest voices in the room but different agendas. Pernetti has argued the hardest for the bigger formula, i.e. 12 teams in football, 19 or 20 in basketball.

Outwardly, the Big East has tried to put on a “we are family’’ face. It’s not working.

Who is to blame? Maybe everyone.

The latest issue came this week when the Big East, with its contract for football and men’s basketball with ESPN running out after the 2012-13 season, turned down an offer from the network that insiders say would have paid Big East schools in the neighborhood of $11 million each.

ESPN told the Big East that was its best offer, considering that marquee such schools as Penn State, Maryland, Notre Dame, and Boston College were not coming through the door as the No. 10 team in football. ESPN was content to take a chance on TCU and perhaps Central Florida with a fair-market offer.

The Big East power base said, “No. We can wait and get a better offer.’’

That is not likely to happen. In fact, less money might be on the table when the Big East does get around to finalizing its television contract.

How does that scenario unfold when everyone else has agreed that with the new deals that the Pac-12, Big 12 and ACC in the past years have clearly raised the money stakes?

Neal Pilson, former president of CBS Sports, said the league should benefit by waiting to finalize a new media rights deal.

“In a marketplace that seems to be growing, college football and college basketball is a growth market,” said Pilson, president of Pilson Communication. “Now since there are several markets for Big East football I don’t think they lose anything by waiting.

“I don’t see that as a risk. The only major sports deal [coming up] is the [2014 and 2016] Olympics and I don’t see that having much influence on Big East football, whether [the value] goes up or down.”

Pilson said first the league must decide its expansion question.

“The Big East has to get their ducks lined up — and I don’t mean the Oregon Ducks — and get their teams and membership [figured out], but they want to be careful who they bring into the conference,” Pilson said. “I don’t think delaying six months or a year will hurt them. ESPN will always be there.”

By waiting, the Big East potentially could have ESPN, Fox and NBC/Comcast bidding for its rights. This, of course, would be financially beneficial to the league.

So, how could the money go down instead of up from the early ESPN offer? Well, by raising conference instability possibilities once more.

There may be more trouble coming for the Big East if the Big Ten decides to move forward again in a few years; already there are rumblings that it might go to 14 teams, with an eye on Georgia Tech and Maryland, which would significantly increase its television footprint.

If that happens, the ACC will be forced to react (UConn? Syracuse? Rutgers?) with what surely would be a fatal blow to Big East football.

Really? That’s the fear? That the ponderous pace of the Big 10 would abruptly change course on expansion now that it has Nebraska, not wait to see how the new order works and jump back in within the next 16 months? The dominoes would tumble again?

Even in that bit of speculative fiction, the specter of new expansion is still a few years away. The Big East’s next deal will be negotiated before then.

Lots of stuff, but in the end — nothing. As usual.





Thanks, Chas, for the timely update.

Maybe we oughta call it the Byzantine Conference.

Comment by steve 05.26.11 @ 4:20 pm

Chas, excellent article and update as usual. I have to ask you though, as, you are in the know (which may not mean much if the powers to be don’t know what they’re gonna do), but, this is a blog after all, people just b.s.’ing about something they are passionate about, what does your gut feeling say, that, the Big East will look like in Sept. 2012????

Won’t hold you to anything, just a gut feeling, at this moment in time??? Nothing about, “Chas stated this back then”, just when you’re kickin’ around, what do you think???

And, for anyone in the future looking back at this, I am just asking for Chas’ speculation, at this particular moment, May of 2011. A million different things can happen, we all know that.

So, I covered you Chas’, what do you think???

Comment by Dan 05.26.11 @ 6:11 pm

I will also add my own prediction. Mind you, this is not what I want to happen, it’s what I think.

In Sept. of 2012, the Big East will look exactly the same, with Villanova approved to join football in the next couple of years. That’s it.

Comment by Dan 05.26.11 @ 6:14 pm

Has there ever been a more indecisive, incompetent, inscrutable and disordered commish than the Great John Marinatto? He may well be the second coming of George III, but less sapient and more indolent. Two or three more years of this and we will be begging to join the WAC, MAC or MWC. Let us add UCF, Houston and almost anyone else by the end of the year. Then if the service schools want to join they can be the 13th and 14th FB schools as football only members. As much as I admire Navy I don’t think they are an especially good match for the Big East. Marinatto does not give a damn about FB and if he did he would not know what to do about it. We must realize this fact now. If we do not I fear the future will be much like the past. Inaction followed by meaningless explanatory letters regarding the inaction (by the great Marinatto himself)then more inaction and a press conference justifying it, etc., etc.

Comment by Ohiosteeler 05.26.11 @ 6:27 pm

By the way Steve I like your suggestion. Let’s call it the Big Byzantine Conference with John Marinatto as emperor and Providence, Seton Hall and Depaul as his royal legion guard.

Comment by Ohiosteeler 05.26.11 @ 6:39 pm

Good and informing article Chas. And very well linked. The link and story that caught the most of my attention and I’m sure most others, was the link to the Boston Globe story. Now I don’t know if this guy has more information than the others, or if since the local college(BC) isn’t a BigEast affiliate anymore, he was just writing for more effect and to add more uncertainty to the current affairs of the BigEast, which of course makes Boston College’s move to the ACC seem like a wise choice.

His mentioning that a TV contract signed later rather than earlier would warrant a lower dollar amount seemed to indicate his bias and possible inclination. It would seem to me if more bidders are involved in the bidding process, that would only make the later negotiated TV contract more valuable than the $11 million per school ESPN apparently had on the table just a few weeks ago.
Barring some unforeseen economic collapse affecting the whole country of course.
(I can imagine the Jesuits of some of the bball schools more than cursing about not accepting that offer)

It would also seem to me, that having a former bigshot at CBS Sports, as in the Rutgers AD, has got to be a good thing and could have been a reason he was hired by Rutgers in the first place.
Maybe not a coincidence he is with Pitt & WVU pressing the football school’s interests.

The Globe’s article also suggested a riff between the football & basketball schools with Pitt, WVU & Rutgers being the ringleaders of the football schools. One might ask, where in the heck is Syracuse, they should be right along with Pitt and the others. And then he had to bring up the Ogre in the room, the Big 10 and a what if (I just love what if’s, NOT REALLY). What if the Ogre decided to raid the ACC for Georgia Tech and Maryland , who by the way would not be my first choice for potential victims in the ACC. Come on, the rambling wreck would never make it on road trips to Madison, Wisc, or Iowa City, Iowa.
That is almost laughable. I can see Maryland accepting right away, but not the Yellow Jackets of the southern city that was torched by Sherman.

But it did make some interesting, if bizarre reading.

Comment by melvinbennett 05.26.11 @ 8:11 pm

I like the historical reference to the Byzantine Conference. As we all know (or should know) the Byzantine Empire was originally part of the Roman Empire, called the Eastern Roman Empire and when the Western Roman Empire or Rome fell in 476AD, the Byzantine Empire was born.

Could the BigEast conference split into two and then only have one survivor? The football schools would probably have to buy the rights for the name. 0r we could just opt for something new, like the Eastern 12 or something way different like the TransAmerica 12, they could have Transamerica Life Ins. Co be the main sponsor. Yeah I kinda like the ring to that.

Comment by melvinbennett 05.26.11 @ 8:23 pm

Why should we bestow instant credibility to a former CBS exec turned AD? Seems to me a demotion.

Comment by steve 05.26.11 @ 8:39 pm

Well not actually a CBS exec, steverino…..
a CBS College Sports exec. You know the channel in the 400-600’s on your remote and broadcast Navy at Rice games. Not exactly like the CBS, number 2 or 3 on your remote who broadcast, Alabama vs. Florida.

An AD of a major State college like Rutgers wouldn’t be a demotion. He’s a king now, in charge of hiring & firing the head football & basketball coaches and all the other sports at Rutgers. And Rutgers probably has a bigger budget than CBS College Sports Network to boot.

Comment by melvinbennett 05.26.11 @ 8:49 pm

Um, didn’t Pernetti play HS football on a team coached by, um, Schiano?

Comment by steve 05.26.11 @ 9:02 pm

Comment by steve 05.26.11 @ 9:10 pm

A while back I mentioned a possible BYU/Big East marriage, and most on this blog laughed at the thought. I just read on a blog that I respect pretty well that the Big East had some talks with BYU. And I think it makes tons of sense. I’m still in the UCF camp, but BYU is a close second for me.
link to frankthetank.wordpress.com

Comment by Lollard 05.26.11 @ 10:16 pm

Ha ha, I love it, and everyones comments. Good chat for idle college football time.

Wonder what that buffoon is really gonna come up with??? LOL

Hey, I just mentioned I like Army/Navy for the road trips. If you’ve never been to West Point or Annapolis, GO!! Even with no football game, great place for the family and a long weekend.

OhioSteeler: “meaningless explanatory letters”
ha ha LMAO—Nail on the head!!!

Comment by Dan 05.26.11 @ 11:11 pm

Chas, how about a Sept 2012 “what the conference will look like” contest??? I’ll throw in some prizes!!!! LOL!!!

Comment by Dan 05.26.11 @ 11:13 pm

As I said, Dan. I’m out of predicting a Big East split after missing badly the first time through.

Honestly, the shape of the conference depends on how the football schools decide some things. By all accounts Pitt, WVU and Rutgers are pushing really hard on the expansion process. Forcing some really difficult things to the front.

The fact is we don’t know where the other football schools stand on this. Louisville (Jurich) and Syracuse (Gross) have been very quiet despite having very a very, very good AD and a media hound AD respectively. UConn is in a bit of flux since they are looking for a new AD. Cinci and USF are just question marks.

I think Villanova will move up to football but only if the conference agrees to go to a 12/18 situation and Villanova comes up with a much more detailed plan for the stadium issue. It may involve a concrete timeline for expanding PPL park. It more likely could involve Penn’s Franklin Field

Comment by Chas 05.27.11 @ 10:24 am

The BE needs to think big. TCU was an awesome add. BYU would be incredible. Army, Navy, Houston, UCF, etc would not help.

Comment by notrocketscience 05.27.11 @ 8:54 am

I’d love for Pitt to play BYU in Provo, the Utah game last year was beautiful. Such picturesque venues. Now if they could just get rid of all the Mormons, i’d be a great place!

Comment by BnG 05.27.11 @ 9:02 am

After reading Frank the Tank’s blog (thanks for posting Lollard), I’m on board with BYU as a member.
Nobody we’re currently thinking about adding to the BE comes close to BYU in football or basketball. And more importantly it increases the BigEast’s national reputation in football immediately. (maybe even more so than TCU) This is almost akin to the Big 10 adding Nebraska, except BYU also has a very good basketball tradition.

Perhaps the BE had BYU in mind when they added TCU, since they were both in the Mountain West together and have played each other before and actually battled for the top spots in the MW.
Now if you have both BYU & TCU in your conference, adding someone like Kansas, K-State or Texas Tech or Mizzou suddenly becomes a lot more doable if the Big 12 implodes at some point.

Finally adding BYU would be thinking on a Grand Scale. Football only, full member, I don’t care, just get them. That TV contract could suddenly get in the $15-20 million range per team with aggressive thinking like this.

Comment by melvinbennett 05.27.11 @ 10:48 am

BYU isn’t happening. At least not for the forseeable future. They are committed to doing the independent status in football thing. Some of it has to do with the LDS mission of the school. Some of it has to do with their own sense of self-importance. I suspect some is ND-envy. Plenty involves money.

They will see how everything goes for the next 5 or 6 years before they would even consider joining as a full member of a conference.

They made too big a show of going independent to turn around and join the Big East in the next few years. They would be forced to concede that the main issue is money and exposure. Not their Mormon mission and items around that.

Comment by Chas 05.27.11 @ 11:38 am

@ Chas

If Pitt, WVU & Rutgers can’t convince Cuse & the other football schools to get behind them, there is something seriously wrong. The football schools should ALL be in Lock Step with what is in the best interests of the football schools. That should a no brainer. The real money as we all know is in college football. I mean even though the BigEast has been one of the top 2 basketball conferences for a long time, that has equated to a TV contract for both bigtime sports (football & hoops) per member school at a whopping $3 million per school. (if the info in Frank the Tank’s blog was accurate) Is that an accurate figure Chas? Thanks and have a great holiday weekend.

MB

Comment by melvinbennett 05.27.11 @ 11:08 am

Remember Melvin, though, as much as Pitt is a national hoop power, and for that matter, WVU is a perrenial top 20 team, they still have the smell of football too them.

Syracuse and Louisville are a little different animal as far as hoops, and old standing relationships. I’m sure, as much as they like, and need football, the hoops people at Louisville and the ‘Cuse have a lot of pull. Probably stand with with Pitt and WVU in the end, but, probably playing their cards tight to the vest.

Syracuse won’t wanna rock the boat with old ties to G-Town, Nova, St.Johns, but, will eventually jump on the side that prevails.

Same with Louisville, a lot of people down there fancy themselves a basketball school. Will do the same.

I wouldn’t expect either to say much publicly, but, they’re not stupid, they will go with the side that is still standing.

Just my thoughts.

Comment by Dan 05.27.11 @ 11:33 am

Chas, excellent answer as always. Sounds about right. Melvin, love the BYU thing, think they declined allready though?? Allthough that means nothing, who knows what is being said behind closed doors.

Hey fellas, May is almost up, time is moving. Got a va-kay in June, and a small one in July, then it’ll be camp time!! Time flies!!

All have a fun and safe Memorial Day Weekend!!!

Comment by Dan 05.27.11 @ 11:38 am

You know, it is really a shame that Pitt is in a conference that is considering teams like Army, Navy, Villanova, UCF, Memphis, ECU, and even now BYU. This conference has had so many missed opportunities. Instead we are forced to play conference games against South Florida and possibly East Carolina. I wish those teams were Penn State and Boston College instead. Oh well, just a little frustrated with expansion talk.

Have a great holiday weekend Panther fans!

Comment by Alex P 05.27.11 @ 7:33 pm

Playing BC was not that great. I don’t think they ever had a sellout or close to sellout playing BC.
I really don’t miss them at all. And I seem to remember them having a fairly small football stadium, Alumni Field or something.

And Pitt has been playing Navy off & on for decades, as they did Army until the last 20 years. Navy games usually are pretty good, as they run that veer running game and trips to play at Annapolis are good road trips. I believe Tony Dorsett set the NCAA rushing record at a Navy game and the corp of Midshipmen gave him an in game tribute. That was really something. So there is no disgrace at all to playing Navy. Navy has had a very respectable team for awhile now. And were great back in the Roger Staubach days.

I do get your point about Villanova, UCF, Memphis & ECU. They are not going to attract very large crowds at Heinz Field and add much(if any) excitement to Pitt’s schedule. BYU is another matter, as they’ve had great FCS success and have won a National Championship more recently than us.

Yes, everyone enjoy the Holiday and don’t forget to honor the veterans who’ve fought and died to give us so much.

Comment by melvinbennett 05.28.11 @ 12:51 pm

We should chill and be content with some good fortune. TCU coming in is huge. With young coaches in the league and perennial bad boy Holgorsen at WVU the future looks pretty good. It’s great to see WVU – and Oliver Luck is the best thing the Big East has going at the present time – Pitt, and Rutgers finally asserting themselves. Holding up the BB schools’ rush to sign with ESPN is one positive sign for the future. Unlike many, I think Villanova in the football league will be a plus. Franklin Field can seat 50,000 giving ‘Nova the opportunity to play league games there. Which is a better Big East city – Orlando or Philly? Keeping the 17-team league together maintains the geographic integrity of the core schools. I’m not prepared to give up traveling to MSG to see Pitt-St. John’s or the Prudential Center for Pitt-SH. As league fans we are in a much better spot now than we were last spring. Cheers.

Comment by TonyinHouston 05.29.11 @ 11:37 am

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