Adding to the intrigue of Big East expansion and the Villanova situation, the Big East media rights will be available after the 2013 football season. It’s one of the reasons the Big East invited TCU last fall and Villanova decided to pursue the idea of expansion. The Big East needs to make itself as pretty — and as stable — as possible if it wants to get a deal even close to what the other 5 BCS conferences are (or are going to be) pulling in their latest deals.
Still with more than a year to go, ESPN and the Big East are already talking.
Typically, with a deal expiring at the end of 2013, talks wouldn’t have started until next year.
ESPN currently pays the Big East an average of $36 million annually as part of a six-year contract for all of its sports. While initial numbers being floated may not be as rich as the ESPN/ACC deal that was struck last spring, it would still mark a major boost for the 16-team conference.
Sources indicate the early numbers range from $110 million to $130 million annually, but conference sources describe those figures as a starting point for any negotiation. The initial offer would fall short of the $155 million annual payout the ACC will receive from ESPN in a deal that kicks in this summer. But the bold push by ESPN shows the network wants to lock down college rights in the face of increasing competition.
The ACC deal, which is the closest analog for the Big East will pay each school some $12 million/year in the new deal.
The article also notes the value of the newest C-USA TV contract.
Earlier this year, Fox Sports agreed to pay Conference USA a total of $42 million for its rights over five years.
To be clear, that’s not $42 million per year. That’s for the entire 5 years. So if it wasn’t clear why UCF, Houston and any other C-USA program looks at the Big East as the big time, that should do it.
The Big East deal, using the $130 million number, would pay the Big East football schools less than the ACC. Now starting with the assumption that the Big East contract of $130 million is split 50-50 for the football side and basketball side (a questionable assumption, as many presume that the b-ball side gets a bigger cut), that leaves $65 million per year for 9 teams and $65 million for 17 teams.
For Pitt and the other football schools, that is $7.2 million from football plus $3.8 million from basketball. About $11 million per year. That’s the best case view. If the division skews higher to the basketball side, that number starts dropping. At 60-40 (basketball-football), Pitt would receive about $10.4 million. A 65-35 would put the number at $10.1 million.
Voodoo Five (USF blog) looks at the potential money and also what it means if the Big East were to add Villanova ((17 basketball) $3.8 + (10 football) $6.5 = $10.3 million) or UCF ((18 basketball) $3.6 + (10 football) $6.5 = $10.1 million/year) if you assume the contract remains unchanged. At 60-40 the numbers would be $10.1 million with Villanova or $9.5 million with UCF. 65-35 drops it to $9.6 and $9.3 million respectively. That’s a slice of $800,000 to $900,000 in media revenue cut away from the other nine football programs each year if UCF is added. Villanova would cost each school anywhere from $500,000 to $700,000
An important additional note about UCF. Adding the Knights or any additional outside school as a full member also decreases each basketball schools’ take by $200,000 to $300,000. That may seem relatively small, but considering the basketball TV rights is so important to them, it has almost as big an impact — and further illustrates why they are so opposed to adding another full member.
If you want to add UCF, then you have to believe that the Knights would increase the value of the Big East contract by somewhere in the neighborhood of $10 million/year to make up the lost revenue in the splits. The other 9 football schools would combine to lose $7.2-8.1 million/year with UCF, and the other 8 basketball schools would combine to lose $1.6-$2.4 million/year.
Villanova is a little better, at a possible $4.5 to $6.3 million/year. The fact that the losses would only be on the football side, drives home why the basketball schools are much more supportive of seeing Villanova move up to football.
These are back of the envelope estimates and do not even take into account any cut for the Big East operational budget. Still, they are illuminating.
This is what the Big East and the member schools really have to mull over with their decisions on any new members to football or overall. It’s nice to say that UCF is an up-and-coming program and has potential. But when you see what the costs are to each school — especially on the football side — to adding them, the real present value makes it harder to make a case. The same holds true for adding Villanova to the football side.
That’s the one part of the story. There’s another part. This offer is still a big improvement over the last contract, but this is without putting the contract on the open market. Plus this is being considered, exceptionally early to renegotiate. You might be asking yourself, “Self, why?”
Here’s the clue from the story.
Still, ESPN’s initial offer has support among several other Big East schools, who are looking for ways to increase revenue and secure their futures in a league that seems annually to be the target of poachers from other conferences.
As usual the boys in the Providence office are looking to protect the basketball schools.
There is no question that being on ESPN is the most desired option for all conferences. We all know that. It is part of the goal. Everyone has it. We all know the stations. It’s a tremendous marketing power. Especially for the basketball side of things. So many games on each week, each day during the season. The fact that the Big East has so many on ESPN has been huge.
But what happens if Comcast/NBC/Versus, Fox Sports or even CBS/CBS College Sports ended up outbidding ESPN for the overall rights? The Big East would be their flagship, but they’ve hardly covered themselves in glory for promoting other conferences. Fox Sports has mangled the Pac-10 and Big 12 for years. People struggle to find CBS College Sports. The production values for NBC/Versus is abysmal when it comes to college sports. What kind of attention does the Big East basketball get then? What kind of treatment?
With the football side, it isn’t as bad. The games are easier to promote. There are fewer games to clutter. As bad as Fox Sports was with the Big-12 and Pac-10 the football was relatively easy to find. Plus with both Fox and NBC/Comcast making bigger pushes and willingness to commit to the college sports there’s some reason for optimism.
But on the basketball side, there’s too much at stake to take a chance. Especially when any contract would be divided at least 17 ways — making even the best deal much more incremental. For basketball schools it is better to be conservative and stay with ESPN where you get much better marketing.
You can bet Pitt, WVU, Syracuse and the other football schools are pushing to wait and get other bids. Let the Pac-12 get their deal to further push the market higher. The football side has to. They are trying to compete in the increasingly more expensive side of things. It takes more than exposure for the football side. They need the money to retain coaches — head and assistants. For expenses. The budget and staff is larger than basketball. For coaches, scholarships, support. Everything.
The other reason for the basketball and Big East offices to push for a new contract now. To head off a possible split of the conference. Let’s face it. The Villanova issue is laying bare some of the long simmering tensions among the schools.
The basketball side (and Big East offices) have seen what has happened to the A-10 without a football anchor to keep them tied to ESPN. C-USA has been adrift. For those of us old enough to remember, even when ESPN only had a couple channels (and NHL instead of NBA), the A-10 and C-USA got good exposure through the 90s.
Then they got squeezed out of the ESPN line-up. Yes C-USA was really hurt by losing their best football and basketball programs to the Big East, but the A-10 didn’t have that excuse. They just have been increasingly marginalized. Looking more and more like a a couple good teams and a bunch of mid-majors. The A-10 is the Big East basketball side’s nightmare.
If Football split and just UCF and Houston were added, that’s 11 teams. The basketball side would still be strong with Pitt, Syracuse, WVU, Louisville, UConn and even Cinci. The football side would be about the same as now. Maybe a little better. But the football schools have to be sure in such a scenario whether they could still pull a $121 million/year contract on the open market. Or about $11 million/school/year. That’s still a gamble when the basketball side of the Big East is the bigger valued component of their media contract.
Plus Memphis will meet strong resistance from the academic side. They aren’t much better than ECU academically.
A split may be desirous, but get realistic about just how good the media contract would be.
, and Orlando continues to grow leaps and bounds
I believe UCF will be added sooner or later, and of course Nov a will be added as soon as their admin get serious about 1A
Good article and discussion of the money issues. And I agree completely with the analysis of the basketball schools opposing UCF. Of course they would. However, let me add one point about splitting off the football schools. Let’s assume that the contract calls for a $130 million payout, and 60% goes to the basketball schools. That’s $78 million, with 1/17 going to Pitt, which is roughly $4.59 million. If the football schools were to split off, of course the basketball payout would be less. But let’s say it falls to $50 million, and it’s split among 12 teams in a new conference. That comes to $4.17 million for Pitt. In other words, the money to Pitt would be about the same either way. But splitting off would give Pitt a chance to be in a better football conference, with decisions being made for the good of football. And of course a conference title game and the money that comes from that.
Naturally it would hurt on the basketball end to lose the likes of Nova, ND, and Georgetown. But by increasing our share of a somewhat smaller pie, plus the other advantages, I think it becomes a no-brainer for the football schools. Why should be be held hostage by the Providence office any longer? For us to be forced to accept Nova in football over UCF is so ridiculous.
Lollard, your scenario means that a split BE Football with 12 teams would be looking at less than $8.5 million per school. All to no longer be in the dysfunctional conference. That would put Pitt and other BE schools that much further behind the rest of the BCS programs. No Big East championship football game would help that. Think ACC football championship.
Not sure how that really grows the conference, if in the present they struggle to compete/keep up.
. Plus there is the simple fact that conference expansion/realignment could rear its head at some point in the next few years. Changing everything, yet again.
Bill Cosby notwithstanding…adding Temple is WORSE than adding Nova. Let’s see how good they do now that Golden isn’t there.
By saying that the 12 teams would get less than $8.5 million per school, I think your assumption is that the pie would stay the same size, but would be divided more ways.
If the current division of money is $130 million in a 60/40 split (hoops getting 60), then there’s $52 million for each football school. That would be split 9 ways, for $5.78 per school. I would haev to think that a 12 team conference would bring in $65 million or so, especially after a conference title game. So I think the money for each school would be able the same.
Two more points. First, if the football schools wanted to split off, add UCF, and stay at 10, that would be fine with me. The Big 12 is doing it that way. No need to add more marginal schools if they don’t add to the pie too much.
Second, I hear what you’re saying about the ACC title game. The Pac-12 wised up on that one and decided the team with the best record would host. The BE would have to do the same thing to avoid a black eye. But that game would still potentially be pretty good. Even the C-USA title game at UCF seemed to be better attended than the typical ACC title game.
Like it or not, the TV markets are what for BASKETBALL are what the BE was based on. Do you think any of the aforementioned markets reaaly give a hoot about BE football?
I understand your theory about markets, and there’s some truth to it. However, the “market” doesn’t matter nearly as much as the program you’re getting. How many people in Chicago really care to watch DePaul right now? Are they really delivering the Chicago market? Hardly.
And when the Big 10 expanded a year ago, did they really want the “Lincoln/Omaha tv market”? Hardly. They wanted the Cornhuskers football program, which is a national brand. They could have had Rutgers for the same “New York market” you speak of, but instead took the Lincoln/Omaha market.
The reality is that markets are way overrated. The question is how many people want to watch a certain program. A lot of people want to watch Duke these days, whether to pull for them or against them. Durham, NC is a small market though. But so what?
Anyway, the so-called football schools in the current BE are most certainly stronger in basketball as a whole than the basketball-only schools. UConn, WVU, Pitt, Syracuse, Louisville, Cincy, etc. I’ll take them any day over ND, Georgetown, SJU, Nova, etc. Look at the track record.
So if we split, we’re taking most of the top basketball schools with us, and leaving off the dead weight. And we’re gaining the ability to make our own decisions for what’s best for our own schools.
Regardless of whether DePaul is in Chicago or not, hardly anyone in Chicago is watching them, so the size of the city is a moot point. We have ND to hold Chicago anyway. Same thing with Seton Hall, get rid of them, we have St.John’s who is NYC’s team when they’re good and when they’re not, NYC is full of Syracuse & UConn people.
With DePaul & Seton Hall off to the A-10 or wherever, the revenue increases for each team and it would be a lot easier at that point to add two full members, say UCF & Houston. Not only does that help football, it brings in two new TV markets for the TV contract, Houston the 4rth biggest city in the country and Top 20 Orlando. I also would say get rid of Providence but with the league office being there and I believe Providence is a charter member, that probably won’t fly. If you could get rid of them or someone else, then you could add SMU to get to 12 football teams. SMU is good academically, June Jones is resurrecting their football program and they’ve had good basketball teams in the past and have some football tradition. SMU & TCU would make for a real nice rivalry game and could capture lots of attention in Dallas, another larger TV market.
Please forget about Memphis (when aren’t they on probation and a lousy no tradition what so ever football) and let’s not revisit Temple again. Once was plenty.
Then Providence, Nova, G-Town and the rest can become the A-10 East. Syracuse has had a long relationship with these schools, so getting them onboard early in the process of ‘splitting off’ would be key in my estimation. Also I would hope the football schools would be working on some sort of deal for ND to join, as that could really help increase the revenue in the TV contract.
Also if there was some way to get ND to join with Pitt, WVU, Syracuse, UConn, TCU & the others, then you should be able to entice better schools for your 11th & 12th teams. Say BC & Maryland.
That would be a pretty respectable conf for football and an excellent basketball conf.
I don’t really disagree with your thoughts on any of it. However, it seems to me that it’s almost as much wishful thinking as hoping to poach schools from the ACC. If the baskeball schools are numerous enough, and strong enough, to block UCF from joining… do you really think they’d vote to jettison DePaul and Seton Hall? And then add more football members who suck at basketball?
Again, I’m not saying that I wouldn’t go along with it. But to me, the realistic options are more limited. I think option #1 would be for the football schools to band together and strong-arm the league to allow just UCF to enter. Leave Nova out. While that wouldn’t help the basketball side at all, the basketball schools might agree if the football schools threatened to leave.
And of course option #2 would be for the football schools to leave, and then they could do whatever they wanted to get to 12 if that was a good option. Or just stay at 9 or 10 and be done with it.
Obviously there are still other possibilities, such as Nova joining in football, or nothing new happening. I was just listing the only two options that I like, that are also realistic.
Your most recent post is heading towards way-too-wishful thinking. ND is never, ever going to join. Neither is penn state. So let’s just end that talk right now. If ND wanted to be in a conference, they’d be in the Big 12 or Big 10. The reality is that they want to be independent for the mere sake of being independent. It has nothing to do with common sense.
And again, poaching ACC members is a pipedream. They have a stable conference and good revenue.
I’d much rather talk about things that are remotely possible. I think adding UCF and staying at 10 in football is very possible. And I think splitting off is possible. But the only schools we would stand to attract would be those in the MAC, C-USA, or some other lesser league. That’s just reality.
You could never get an ACC team to leave the ACC unless ND was in the conf. for football. (And then even then it would only be a select few ACC teams, like BC & perhaps Maryland, maybe Miami would want to come back in that scenario. I would take Miami over Maryland.
I was trying to make the point (maybe badly) that ND might be more willing if there were less teams to share the revenue pot with(of course I realize ND turned down all that big 10 money). But ND might think and rightfully so, they could win the new BigEast conf. easier than the Big 10 in football. Although the Big 10 has been getting multiple BCS bids lately so even multiple BCS bids didn’t entice ND.
The Bigeast football schools splitting off, might force ND’s hand, as would they want all their other sports to only be in a league with all the other Catholic schools and do the Catholic schools like Seton Hall, St. John’s, DePaul, to name a few, even participate in ALL the other sports that ND’s teams do? (like olympic sports)
That would leave ND with two options(it would seem), join as a full member with the Big 10 or the new BigEast.
Keep in mind, this would be only coming from my point of view, and wish, that, Pitt would someday be in a twelve team conference, of like universities, that, when you look in the paper, or should I say, online now, that when you look at the conference standings, the Big East looks like it belongs, not some mish-mash, conglomerate of schools hanging onto each other for particular wants, needs and money.
I have learned from Chas, not to believe the internet rumors, or SBnation posts, bleacher reports, etc. etc., and, that I only got excited about some of the Pitt prospects, only to be depressed in the end.
Therefore, I give you the Big East for the future, by elimination. I did post something like this last week, but, to help others out, here is definitely what will not happen for Pitt, because, it is my wish.
1.Pitt to the Big Ten
2.Pitt to the Big Ten with any combo of (ND, Missouri, Rutgers, Syracuse etc. etc.)
3.Pitt to the ACC
4.Pitt to the ACC with any combo of (UCONN, WVU,Syracuse
5.Big East splits and goes to 12 or 14 with any combo of Kansas, Kansas St., Missouri, Iowa St.
a. Has championship game at Yankee Stadium around Christmas, what a NYC trip that would be
b. Has championship game at the Carrier Dome if you want it inside
6.Big East splits, and adds any combo of (UCF, Houston, Villanova, Memphis, E.Car, Temple etc. etc.) to get to 12 or 14
a&b. Champ game as above
7. Big East doesn’t split, but adds teams to get to 12 football.
So, I have now given you, what won’t happen. That leaves, pretty much status quo. Still the mish-mash, little 9 conference in football, with still playing DePaul, Providence and Seton Hall.
How they ever pulled off the TCU thing, I’ll never know.
The easiest thing, so you don’t get disappointed, is to realize, this is pretty much it. Get used to it, live it, and try to enjoy it.
Again, some may like it this way, this is only my wishes, and, why, I know what’s going to happen, pretty much nothing, this is afterall, Big East people running the Big East!!!
Yes, I know there are shortfalls and reasons with all of my wishes, I know this, these are only wishes, and, I’ve come off of my addiction, to realize, try to be happy with what I have.
Ha Ha, minor in the scope of things, Happy Easter, Passover to all!!!
You mention Temple & Memphis will improve in football. Just what evidence gives you that impression? Temple probably ‘topped out’ the last couple years under Golden and still couldn’t win the MAC. Yeah we’re talking the MAC here. Memphis was just about the worst FBS team in the land last year at 1-11 which followed a 2-10 season before that. Plus Memphis basketball has had to give up just about every Final 4 appearance they’ve made due to NCAA sanctions. And academically, please. So you’re getting a joke of a football program and a renegade basketball program. If we have to stoop that low I’d rather they just forget it.
It would be more successful at Heinz Field, at least it would be in a 1rst class stadium.
Let me address the ND thing again. I actually wrote a lenghty e-mail to everyone in their athletic department many years ago. I outlined all the arguments you’re making, plus a few more. This was when the ACC had just raided the BE. My basic sales pitch to them was the following:
1) They could demand a greater share of the money split – something they likely couldn’t do in the Big 10.
2) They could set up the league schedule where they could play only 7 league games, thus allowing them to continue many of their old rivalries (Michigan, MSU, USC, Purdue, etc).
3) They could decide who joins the league with them. So if they want Navy to join, then Navy joins.
4) They would have two ways of going to the BCS, rather than just one. And they’d have to think they could win the BE on a regular basis (even if they’re a tad delusional).
Anyway, I put all this to them, plus more, in my e-mail. But I got a “thanks but no thanks reply.” Years later, I read something that summed up ND quite well. And you’ve got to let this sink in a bit, because we come from a mindset where we think money talks. But with ND, it’s not really about the money. They want to be independent because they want to be independent. They think they’re special that way or something.
Now, as far as “forcing their hand,” there’s really nothing we could do to accomplish this. First of all, they still have their precious football independence and a tv contract with NBC. Second, an all-Catholic hoops league isn’t really a big dropoff in quality. Third, ND is enough of a giant that they could always find a landing space if they wanted to join a league. Do you think the Big 10, Big 12, or ACC wouldn’t snap them up in a nanosecond? Of course they would. So that option is always there. And fourth, if a split ever occurred, the basketball schools remaining from the BE would immediately be able to cherry pick the best of the A-10 or whatever other league is out there. So expect the likes of Temple, Xavier, etc to quickly join the leftover BE members. And what’s left would be a pretty strong and stable league that would be immune to the constant football-driven shifts in the sports landscape.
All of that adds up to a situation where nobody can force ND’s hand.
You are correct sir. Nobody (well almost nobody) could force ND’s hand. Nobody that is except NBC. And unless they’re TV ratings went into the toilet(unlikely) that wouldn’t happen.
I find it kind of hard to fathom that in a scenario of no NBC TV contract, how long ND would remain ‘independent’. It’s very easy to be ‘high & mighty’ when you have the loot ND has in their pockets.
You are right about a Memphis/Louisville basketball game being gobbled up by the likes of ESPN. They would love anything that gave them a big TV rating number up in Bristol. Pitt & Temple not so much, as when those two played previously it wasn’t that big of a deal. I believe Pitt & Temple were in the Eastern 8 together and they played each other before that as well on a home & home basis.
If you’re splitting, I’d think the football schools would HAVE to think football first as we all know (or should know) that’s the big revenue driver. And if you’re thinking football first, you’re NOT thinking Memphis or Temple. That’s the point I’m making. I do agree with you they both have good basketball programs. Temple & Pitt have played many times pre Pitt joining the BigEast for hoops and I have been at many of those games. I also attended Temple before transferring to Pitt so I am very familiar with their positives and negatives.
Anyhow, if attendance would be an issue, and probably would be, do what the Pac 10 did, which I think is better than Lucas Oil, Georgia Dome, or Texas Stadium as the other conferences do, team with best record (tie breakers, whatever), friggin’ home game!!! Awesome!!!!
Again, Melvin, Chas will tell you, I’m one of the people that got my hopes up last year, and, I actually love talking about it, fun to say, here is my conference, I’d make north and south, I’d have so and so with so and so. Just think if Pitt went Big Ten, road trip to Camp Randall, or ACC, would love to go to the Carolinas, but, I’ve come to realize, it’s all a moot point, nothing gonna happen. Big East suits runnin’ it, nothing gonna happen.
The difference in me now, I “used” to like to talk about it. Now, with the realization that, the Big Ten has set its schedule for the upcoming years, ACC just signed a 15 year contract, and as much as the Kansas’s and Mizzou hate Texas and what they’ve done, how can any of them turn, what, 20 million a piece down, they’ll just bitch about it, as 20 million goes into the coffers.
Big East gonna be pro-active and go to 12 or 14 and split, never!!! They might lose a little money along the way, or a lot, I don’t know about all these contracts and bs, I just know the Big East’s m.o. over the last 20-30 years.
TCU was their big move, a good one, don’t get me wrong, but, TCU was an anomaly!!!!
This is it!! Like I said, minor in the world, but, this is a blog about Pitt, and far as sports go, I really would like to see a real conference, not a league.
Chas, I’ll give you a break on the conference re aignment talk this summer, as it’s really not that much fun when you know there is no chance. Last summer, sounded like chances, but, Chas, I have seen the light!!!!
Also, I will tell you this, and I’m not telling any of you anything you don’t allready know…….
sometimes, you may have to take some losses, yes even monetary losses, to come out with a better product!!!
Happy Easter, Passover, etc. etc. to all!!!
How about the BE football teams spend some time getting better on the field, first, before they try an adventure on their own?
Frankly speaking, splitting the current BE FB teams and having their own league would make for some pretty lame FB to watch and market on TV.
I’d prefer the BE FB schools (mainly Pitt, WVU and Syracuse) win some games to beef up the FB brand a bit before we take this show on the road w/out the BB only schools.
“Jamal Coombs-McDaniel, a swingman on Connecticut’s national championship basketball team, has been arrested on a marijuana possession charge.”
I have great memories of showing up at the Linc ticketless, buying a parking lot cheapie, go in, sit wherever you want cause its empty, and watch Larry Fitz go for 200 vs the owls.
the only football on.
Why can’t the Big East tell the Networks we want separate contracts for Football and Basketball and Jack the price up or Start our own network?
