If Ashton Gibbs is indeed staying in the draft then Pitt is in for quite the transition year. I know there is a lot of optimism with the incoming talent, and those who want to see them play sooner rather than later are definitely going to get their wish.

Right now, assuming all kids qualify academically, here is how the roster will look for next year:

rsJR G Travon Woodall

rsSO G/F Lamar Patterson

SO SF J.J. Moore

SR PF Nasir Robinson

JR F/C Dante Taylor

rsSO F Talib Zanna

rsFR G Isiah Epps

rsFR G Cameron Wright

FR G John Johnson

FR G Durand Johnson

FR C Malcolm Gilbert

FR F/C Khem Birch

Woodall would be the defacto point guard with Epps as the back-up and John Johnson possibly in the mix.

If Durand Johnson is the shooter everyone says he is, then he will have a chance to step in right away as the starting shooting guard. Otherwise I would expect the other two starters in the Pitt backcourt with Woodall would be Lamar Patterson and J.J. Moore. (Yes, I know Moore is classified as a forward, but he is a wing player and operating on the perimeter a lot more.) A terrifying prospect in terms of perimeter shooting (.293, .222 and .308 respectively).

Cameron Wright will earn big minutes. He has always had a reputation as a very good defensive player. Not a consistent shooter, though. He might be the starting

I expect John Johnson to be the odd man out in the backcourt rotation. He’s combo guard and something of a project to play point. Given the rumors of his struggles to get academically qualified, that just puts extra pressure on having him redshirt.

The frontcourt was already going to see a lot of youth. The decision by J.J. Richardson to transfer was a surprise. Especially since it seems to be his decision. Richardson would have gotten minutes this year. Not starter minutes, but definitely would have been in the rotation.

The immediate beneficiary will be Malcolm Gilbert. He was likely to redshirt, and have time to develop some offense. Instead, he will have to play minutes as a reserve/back-up center. The good news is he is a strong defensive player. There’s no question that Dante Taylor is the starter.

Until told otherwise, I’m assuming that Nasir Robinson will go into the season as the starting power forward. Maybe Khem Birch seizes it. Maybe Talib Zanna makes a leap in consistency. But neither will have the job handed to them.

This coming season will definitely see a lot more shifting in the frontcourt as it will become necessary to play Zanna or Birch at the 5 spot at points. Experimenting will be expected during the non-con. When that happens, I’m sure there will be much gnashing of teeth about defensive assignments, footwork, rebounding and position. But I’m sure Pitt fans will handle it with their usual calm understanding and patience. Especially during the season.

Now, I’m sure a bunch of people are already poised to point out that Pitt far exceeded expectations in 2009-2010 when Pitt was expected to rebuild after Fields, Young and Blair left. While the talent and potential of new starters and bench is greater than that of 2010, there are a few significant differences.

The first is experience. 2009 featured Dixon, Brown and Wanamaker. All three averaged 19 minutes or more per game and played in 30+ games the year before. Plus Gibbs played nearly 11 min/game in 35 games. The only freshman to see significant action in 2009 was Dante Taylor.

The 2011 squad will feature two players (Robinson and Woodall) with 20+ min/game averages. Taylor and Patterson were the only other players to play in more than 30 games and average double-digit minutes. It is expected that at least 5 freshman (redshirt and true) will be expected to contribute — D. Johnson, Wright, Epps, Gilbert and Birch. There will be a lot of inexperience out there.

Another factor will be the coaching. On the bench in 2009 was Tom Herrion. A former D-1 head coach and in his third year on Coach Dixon’s staff. He knew the players. This year, Pitt will also be breaking in a new assistant in Bill Barton. While he might be familiar with some things since he came from Tom Herrion’s Marshall staff, he will have to learn the players and how Coach Dixon operates.

Then there are the expectations and pressure. In 2009, the expectations were low. No preseason rankings. Picked for the middle of the Big East. A fringe Tournament team. This time, the talent has people expecting more right away. Coach Dixon has overachieved so many times in the regular season, it is now expected.

There was no question, that in 2011 Pitt was going to play a lot more freshmen. The kids were going to get opportunities. If Gibbs is indeed staying in the draft, coupled with Richardson’s departure, Pitt now has to rely on the freshmen.