There’s a rhythm to certain things. Especially in the media and debating polls. After the Number One team loses.
In a situation like this weekend where Ohio State lost a close one at Wisconsin — where no road team wins. You get the arguments that the No. 1 team, maybe shouldn’t fall just because they lost. Especially when you look at where and how they lost. You have the debate about the 2 and 3 teams. Maybe the No. 4 team, but that seems too far a reach. Especially since it would mean dropping the No. 1 team all the way to No. 4.
In particular with Pitt, and the initial reaction to the win on Saturday. Everyone acknowledges that it was a great win for Pitt. A tough road win, against a top-10 team in the toughest conference. Done without Pitt’s leading scorer. But the debate kind of leaves Pitt out of the discussion, for vague reasons. Whether it is tired, inaccurate claim that Pitt lacks sufficient offense, or another team is just playing so much better than everyone else right now (Texas), or another is has the most NBA-potential talent and depth (Kansas), or that the other has the best NBA prospect (Ohio State).
But then comes the reversal to that, as the proof is demanded. Then, while it is too late for the polls the “counter-argument” begins to say that Pitt should have gotten more consideration after all. (Alternatively, it might be as simple as many people realizing that by dismissing Pitt, they are agreeing with Doug Gottlieb. That is hard for a lot of people to accept.)
So today I’m going to look at Sagarin’s list of wins vs. Top 50. As Selection Sunday draws closer we’ll look more closely at RPI, just because the committee does. But for argument’s sake, here are the teams with the most wins against the Sagarin Top 50.
10 – Pittsburgh
8 – Ohio State, Notre Dame, Villanova
7 – Texas, Georgetown, Wisconsin, UConn, Florida
6 – Duke, BYU, Syracuse, Louisville, West Virginia
5 – Kansas, North Carolina, Vanderbilt, Illinois, St. John’s, Tennessee
Interestingly, aside from the wins against top-25 or -50 teams — whether RPI, Sagarin, Pomeroy, or polls — Pitt’s computer numbers aren’t that much better or worse. All four teams seem very tightly bunched. Still, Pitt is right there.
There is not a tough, more physical team in the country than Pitt. They don’t win because they have the most talented players. They win because they are the best team, in every sense of the word. Think about this — the Panthers played without Ashton Gibbs this week, their leading scorer and a candidate for Big East player of the year. It didn’t matter. The Panthers still went into West Virginia and into Villanova in prime time games (on Big Monday and on Gameday on Saturday) and came away with wins.
Could Texas win at Kansas and Texas A&M without Jordan Hamilton? Could Kansas win in Austin or at Missouri with Marcus Morris? Ohio State couldn’t win at Wisconsin with Jared Sullinger.
The counter-argument is that Pitt at full strength couldn’t beat any of those three teams at full strength, and if you believe that, its fine. I’m not sure I’d argue with you.
And neither would Pitt. Its exactly what they want you to think.
And then there is the fact that no team had a more impressive week when you look at the wins and where.
The Panthers had every excuse to drop at least one game, perhaps two, in a daunting road swing through West Virginia and Villanova. Ashton Gibbs, the team’s top scorer and lead guard, was out this week with an MCL injury. Pitt was going against two teams that have strong guards.
Instead, the Panthers proved why they are the best team in the Big East and a likely No. 1 seed for the second time in three years with a sweep of the Mountaineers and Wildcats. And it didn’t matter that the Wildcats moved their high-profile game to the cozier on-campus Pavilion, where they’d won 46 games in a row. It didn’t matter that WVU Coliseum was filled to the brim with rowdy West Virginia fans revved up for their rival.
Pitt trailed at the half of both games, outscored both opponents by seven in the second half and won both games despite struggling from the 3-point range in each (1-of-6 against WVU and 1-of-10 against Nova). Gibbs’ replacement, Travon Woodall, had three assists and one turnover and scored 12 points against the Mountaineers. And the guards did a fine job of defending the 3-point line as West Virginia was just 4-of-17. The Panthers dominated West Virginia on the boards, 39-25.
Frankly, I’m guessing that all but the most optimistic Pitt fan assumed Pitt would be likely to drop one of these games, back when the schedule was announced. I’m sure I did.
Pitt not being voted No. 1 today — or even moving up one spot after this week — is not a big deal. It isn’t disrespect or media hatred. It’s just all in the timing of when teams win or lose. And even in the media, while they may doubt Pitt being the best team in the country, they know Pitt is in the conversation all the way into March.
A 57-54 win at Villanova Saturday night gave the Panthers their first win at the Palestra in 17 years and marked the first time they’ve won 11 of their first 12 Big East games. Not bad for team playing without leading scorer Ashton Gibbs.
“It was fun. A hostile environment, no Ashton Gibbs and we got the win,” said senior Brad Wanamaker, who scored a team-high 21 points, including most of the clutch baskets that usually fall to Gibbs.
That gives Pitt (23-2, 11-1) a sizable lead heading into its final six Big East games. Notre Dame – its one conference loss – is 10-3, while the rest of the league is no better than 8-4. If you’re a believer that the Big East is the nation’s best conference, the fact that Pitt’s running away with the league should be an indicator of what March holds.
For comparison, the 2008-09 Pitt squad that finished 31-5, reached No. 1 in the rankings, nabbed a No. 1 seed in the Big Dance and reached the Elite Eight features tempo-free numbers that are awfully close to this year’s edition. (That Sam Young-DeJuan Blair-Levance Fields team didn’t win the Big East but had stiffer competition in Louisville and UConn.) The offense is slightly worse, but the defense is better.
There is no guarantee, and I’m sure there will be plenty of people saying Pitt won’t make it to the final weekend of the NCAA Tournament. Getting them to pin it down as to who and how will be a different issue.
:
Wanamaker’s quotes from the P-G:
“Me, Gary [McGhee] and Gilbert [Brown] tried to keep our leadership up throughout the game.”
“It shows a lot of character and leadership. Myself, Gary and Gilbert, we’ve been trying to lead this team all year.”
I understand that schools have changed their curricula. Evidently, grammar is now taught in graduate school.
I forget who the host was but he was talking about the aforementioned 3 as to which was deserving of being #1. Again, no mention of Pitt. Then, someone from Pittsburgh called in and questioned him about it. His answer was that he LOVED Pitt and was very impressed by their big wins without Gibbs, but that because Gibbs was out he couldn’t vote Pitt #1. That may seem oxymoronic, but he went on to explain that he didn’t think that Pitt could beat either of the other three or Duke without Gibbs. So, at this time, he could not vote them ahead of those teams. He went on to say that knee injuries are tricky, so there is no guarantee when Gibbs would be back or how effective he would be when he came back, but that if he did come back with no ill effects, he would certainly consider Pitt in the conversation. That actually made some sense to me, and might be how some other pollsters feel.
As far as Gottieb, I stopped getting upset by anything he says regarding BE teams. It’s so obvious that he’s a BE hater – for reasons known to most on this board – that he’s nothing more than a clown. When ESPN needs someone to say something stupid to get basketball fans upset and pounding their message boards, they hand the mike to Gottlieb.
We’ve got to advance in the NCAA tournament. As the focus on college basketball continues to contract, only the post season really matters to the critics. Last week was great. How will it help the team in the NCAA tournament?
The fact is, we have played much better teams/tougher games than anyone in the country. I don’t care what rankings, RPI, or SOS say. Every single night, aside from DePaul, you play a team that is quality–heck, Providence is in the bottom four of the conference and they have one of, if not the, most talented scorers in the nation in Brooks.
Plus, all of the schools in this conference have fan bases who care and show up for games. For us to go undefeated on the road in those buildings speaks volumes.
This is the most battle-tested team in the country. We deserve the #1 ranking.
But I also don’t care that Pitt isn’t #1.
AP
1 Kansas (22) 24-1 1,549
2 Ohio State (14) 24-1 1,536
3 Texas (23) 22-3 1,535
4 Pittsburgh (6) 23-2 1,478
ESPN
1 Kansas (14) 24-1 753
2 Texas (13) 22-3 746
3 Ohio State (3) 24-1 706
4 Pittsburgh (1) 23-2 697
Pitt has four good games left, WVU/Nova at home and Louisville/St. Johns on the road. They will probably be slight favorites in all. And all are games where they could potentially stumble. They need to get and stay healthy, continue to improve and peak come tourney time. A nice friendly draw wouldn’t hurt either.
Barring a major collapse, Pitt has all but locked up a 2 seed. And with things as wide open as they are this year, with no dominant team, there isn’t a huge difference between a 1 and 2 seed.
This has been a great season so far. Let’s enjoy the next month and half of hoops, it could be HISTORIC!!!!
My only concern is that people are looking at the top teams above Pitt, and the perception (which is often reality) is that those teams “look” better than Pitt, despite what the numbers say.
The perception of Texas right now, is based largely on the Longhorn’s trouncing of Kansas, on the Jayhawk’s home court. Every other recent win, with the possible exception of Missouri, has come against average opponents. When you look at the top 5 teams record against Top 25 RPI teams, the records of Kansas, Texas, and OSU’s doesn’t compare.
Winning will take care of everything, but I guess I just don’t like that kind of pressure. I don’t want the Panthers to make it to the BE semis, drop a game to Louisville (or someone similar), and then watch Duke slip into the final #1 seeding.
the committee would never do that..it would hurt ticket sales at another venue….you may say but they are sold out…..yes but many no shows for the first round games and such or unsold out venues like when pitt was at auburn hills……would be the hardest ticket to get….imho…would not put two schools so highly ranked at an arena driving distance away….
Dan 72, you wouldn’t mind getting ko;d in the first round???
Well, I think that I see your point: The players will have more time to get ready for their opponent in the NCAA tourney. Of course they won’t know who they are playing, but they can make assumptions. Well, maybe that wouldn’t really be productive. But just so the long lay-off between games wouldn’t hurt them, they could have intense scrimmages during practices while the other BE teams are playing games. I know that scrimmages are not really the same as game conditions, but it would keep them from getting a little rusty. And since they are getting more used to losing, it will be reinforced that losing is not the worse thing in the world. The sun has a tendency to rise the next morning.
Actually, there has to be more advantages to losing the BE than I listed here.
face it … Pitt just doesn’t pass the eye test.
You watch the atleticism and pure shooters of the other teams, and they look better than Pitt … but we know better.
if Pitt continues on its path, it will get a top seed, and then the ultimate crapshoot begins
I have said this before and I’ll say it again, if Syracuse, Uconn or Georgetown were 11-1 in the BigEast(with the way the BigEast has dominated the Top 25 and the Top 10 this year) and 23-2 overall they would have been voted #1, no doubt at all.
And I’ll say this again, if you don’t get respect at home, you’re not going to get it nationally.
Also there is something seriously wrong with these RPI ratings, there is NO WAY BYU & SDSU can have a higher RPI than Pitt. They have both ONLY played two ranked teams the WHOLE effn year. With one of those a game involving each other. If you look at these two teams schedules, they are loaded with like 80-90% cupcakes. All I can say about the RPI is, garbage in, garbage out.
Something is seriously amiss. And I find it absolutely amazing NOBODY in the entire effn sports media is writing or ranting about this.
Quite simply, the place is a joke
I could barely see the other basket because rafters were obstructing my view. There was no instant replay access, and just a small scoreboard on one of the rafters with score and time left. I had no clue on fouls/points etc.
They might make the argument about “atmosphere” or “tradition”… this is total BS.
That joke of an arena is only 25 years old… it was built in 1986!… and it fits 6500 and its a total dump
In my humble opinion, it doesnt reflect a winning tradition. Rather, it reflects a lack of alumni support in both attendance and donations.
On the other hand, the University of Pennsylvania has what’s called the Palestra… its the Cathedral of basketball for a reason
despite being build in 1926, it fits 9000 fans in standing room only crowd and is twice is loud as the pavillion. The Pete doesnt deserve to be compared to such an inferior venue.
Their student section was also very mediocre… being entirely silent for long stretches of the game prompting several “we cant hear you” chants from the pitt fans I was sitting with. They didnt really have any organization or chants… and lacked any intidation factor as it was just one side of the gym (south behind the basket). Additionally, poor research led to their band playing “sweet caroline” which was hilarious when Pitt fans came in with the “go pitt” parts.
The girls we were with also showed up 5 minutes before game time and got in with no problems… an impossibility at the Pete. The intros were quiet compared to the absolutely insane buildup at Pitt…. in case you forgot:
link to youtube.com
so… if the Big East thinks Nova is ready for D1 football… it is quite clear that they are mistaken
