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August 26, 2010

You look for trends, history and all those things that can help you in predicting an outcome. Utah has a very interesting little factoid might make you nervous.

Utah coach Kyle Whittingham doesn’t use a wand or pull rabbits out of his hat.

Whittingham does, however, have a practice model in place to prepare the Utes for games with extra preparation time. Since October of 2007, they’ve won 13 straight contests when given more than a week to size up the opposition. The streak includes three bowl victories and a pair of season openers.

“I don’t believe it’s any magic in the practice plan,” he said. “I think it’s the way our players go about it.”

Of course, after pausing to think about the 13-0 mark, that is a little skewed, to not count the season opening loss to Oregon State and another loss to Air Force with more than a week to prepare that followed. That 13-0 mark also includes a game played 8 days later — technically more than a week, but barely seems to count in my view.

Still, Whittingham took over the same year as Coach Wannstedt, so it seems fair to look at the full length of his tenure to see how he did with 8 days or more to prepare. It is still a rather impressive 20-5 record. 2-0 in season openers at home, 1-2 for season openers on the road.

Just for fun I made the length to 9 or more days and it isn’t that significant a drop-off. Utah was 18-5.

Coach Wannstedt in that same period is a less sterling 10-14. Make the lay-off 9 days or more and it is 8-11. Even in the last couple of years it is only 6-4 (4-4 for 9 days or more).

So much of this seems to bear out some pre-conceived notions. Utah’s Kyle Bill Whittingham is considered one of the best young coaching minds. Coach Wannstedt, not so much.

Except, this is completely misleading. Now I think Whittingham is a good coach, but this stat is useless. Yes, he is 5-0 in bowl games. That’s impressive, and we all know about the win over Alabama in the Sugar Bowl.

Guess how many of the 20 regular season games in the sample size were played against teams that were bowl eligible? Four. UCLA and Wyoming (6-6) in 2006 and Air Force and Oregon State in 2007. Guess what? All of those games were losses.

So, not including the 5 bowl victories, Utah and Whittingham areĀ  0-4 in regular games against teams that finished with a .500 or better record. Outside of the bowl games the Utes have not won a game against a team that finished .500 or better in the regular season with more than a week to prepare.

(Not that Pitt and Coach Wannstedt should do much bragging. 1-1 in bowl games. Against teams that finished .500 or better in regular season, Pitt has been a less than outstanding 4-12 (3-3 in the last two years) with extra prep time.)

I’m betting the Utah SID put out there, and we can expect to hear mentioned next Thursday night. Just remember, it is completely useless.





Utah has 7 new starters on defense from last year. All 3 linebackers and both cornerbacks. Why do they so much love when aside from the line, the defense is unproven.
I feel that our D can contain their offense, but can the unproven defense of Utah shut down Lewis and Baldwin and Shanahan?
Call me simplistic, but one of the new corners is 5’10”. If I’m Cig, I’m running the Twin Towers down the sidelines and telling Tino to throw to which one is being covered by the shorter CB. Throw it high and it’s either complete or out of bounds. A couple completions like that and Dion’s running lanes open up.
OK, I got that off my chest. I feel better.

Comment by Fear The Mustache 08.26.10 @ 5:16 pm

I hope they do use that statistic; that way, it will be more impressive after the Panthers roll into SLC and top the Utes.

HTP!

Comment by JSS 08.26.10 @ 5:54 pm

I think Utah is considering starting a true freshman in the secondary, I saw it on one of the boards today.

Comment by The Oakland Jew 08.26.10 @ 5:56 pm

You should note that Utah’s coach is named Kyle, not Bill.

Comment by quaziemoto3 08.26.10 @ 7:42 pm

Interesting. I would like to also see each program’s quantity of freshmen playing in each contest. I would call this, as I remember from my academic days, a moderating variable.

Indeed, it might even be THE independent variable.

Comment by Steve 08.26.10 @ 8:22 pm

“Why do they so much love when aside from the line, the defense is unproven.”

Fear the Mustache, do you know how many (if any) of the newcomers on defense are Samoan? In the bowl game, the Samoans annihilated Pitt. (QB Alex Smith also did not hurt their cause.)

Comment by BigGuy 08.26.10 @ 10:50 pm

“Why do they so much love when aside…”

Sounds like the opening of a William Shakespeare sonnet.

Comment by Reed 08.27.10 @ 4:49 am

Alex Smith was the real deal back in the Fiesta Bowl against Pitt. Of course all the players are different now but that evil multiple look spread offense is still the norm for Utah. All Pitt fans are worried about how our offensive line will hold up, I’m worried on how our linebackers/secondary will match up against that spread. If we can cover those receivers and pressure their QB with our front four then we’re in for a win. I just keep remembering how Alex Smith made us look silly the last time we played them, surgically picking us apart everytime there was a missed coverage, 1st down, unstoppable. Please no repeats of that debacle!

Comment by Dr. Tom 08.27.10 @ 8:05 am

One other thing about the Fiesta Bowl in 2005, along with Smith Utah had Urban Myer on the sideline and we had WLAT. That’s history, Pitt really does have a shot to win this game.

Comment by The Oakland Jew 08.27.10 @ 8:12 am

And back then Pitt was not prepared against the spread… .since then.. spread offense has been wildfire in college and we play multiple teams a year (WVU, SF). And what has been mentioned is that UTAH runs a spread similar to a hybrid of south florida and wvu.

Pitt is much more prepared to defend the spread based on the athletes it has now, and the exposer to it. Especially compared to 2004/5.

But Utah is no slouch, the are expecting a perfect season and rolling over pitt.

Comment by Snala The Panther 08.27.10 @ 8:57 am

Pitt was an entirely different animal in that 2004 Fiesta Bowl. DW has molded a very talented and deep team that can play defense. I am also confident that Cig will have a good game plan going in and will be able to adjust as the game moves on. If cav were still in control I would be worried, real worried. I think Tino will be fine once he settles in and gets the initial jitters out. To date, no one has been able to shut down Dion or Baldwin and I dont expect Utah to be the first.

Comment by Coach Ditka 08.27.10 @ 8:58 am

I like the vibe, nothing would make me happier than the Pitt secondary being all over their receivers like a bad suit while Romeus and others play “dismember the quarterback”! I want this badly.

Comment by Dr Tom 08.27.10 @ 10:26 am

Coach Ditka – did you miss some games in 2009? Teams sure as hell could ‘shut down’ Baldwin as he completely disappeared in two games and pretty much sucked in a third…

Buffalo: 4/44 – 0 TDs
Rutgers: 1/17 – 0 TDs
Syracuse: 1/5 – 0 TDs

There is always a trade off with double teaming a guy like Baldwin but let’s not kid ourselves that you can’t take him out of play – you can and it has been done.

Had your post said “Dion AND Baldwin” then I’d agree – there wasn’t a situation where both kids were handled defensively on the same day.

Comment by Reed 08.28.10 @ 5:21 am

PITT couldn’t run the ball back in 2004. Walt wasn’t a run guy (who can forget the 2000 Insight Bowl when coming off a 200 + game, Kevan Barlow was hardly used against an inferior run defense of Iowa State). Palko ran for his life in that F Bowl game, because PITT had no running game to speak of. This time around PITT will run it down your throat, ask UNC’s vaunted defense. They knew Dion was coming and still couldn’t stop him. But I wouldn’t be surprised if Cig comes out trying to exploit Utah’s secondary if they have 8 men in the box to try and stop Dion & Hynocerus. If that works PITT will win.

Comment by carolinapanther 08.31.10 @ 3:53 pm

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