The danger of trying to post late at night, after having a few drinks, and sweating out a win by Pitt is not writing things I will regret later. Nor is it spelling and grammar issues — well that is an issue but not where I’m going. It’s forgetting the whole point of the post.
After the St. John’s game, one of the primary issues I wanted to write was about how Pitt was playing a lot more along the lines of how they played in the non-con (hence the title of the post). Instead I got bogged down in things about the game, and forgot about tying it together with the intended point. Opting instead for sleep and forgetting all about it.
I’ve been fairly consistent stating that Pitt would be uneven this year. That progress would not be a straight line. Playing at points like they were capable of winning the conference, and others like they would struggle to finish at their preseason projection of 9th. Which of course, leads to the panicky, “oh god, Pitt won’t even make the Tournament,” outbursts. Not to mention silly strawman articles about how Coach Dixon is still the same coach (duh).
It doesn’t make this present stretch any less fun. Doubly so since two of the losses came against teams that were near the bottom last season.
Pitt isn’t in free-fall like UConn. Even Texas has found itself struggling far more than they should. Seth Davis still thinks Pitt is fine and at SI.com listed a bunch of teams with struggles and his evaluations.
Under the hood: When the Panthers knocked off Syracuse in the Carrier Dome on Jan. 2, they made 10-of-24 from three-point range. Turns out that was a mirage. During the last four games, they have gone just 13-for-55 (23.5 percent) from behind the arc. They adjusted during Sunday’s loss at South Florida by only taking eight threes, but they converted just 12-of-22 from the foul line. When the Panthers aren’t making shots, it puts enormous pressure on their defense, and during this recent skid the D has not been quite good enough.
Wheels report: Three wheels wobbly. Fourth holding steady.
It appears Pitt’s win streak inflated expectations, but now that the Panthers have self-corrected, I think they can keep chugging along. Still, they’re going to have to knock down some shots, either from the arc or the free throw line, to win Wednesday at West Virginia. Otherwise that fourth wheel might not hold up.
The last few games have been frustrating to me. The defense has been prone to breakdowns at key spots. Against USF the Bulls were kept to sub-40% shooting, but Dominique Jones came in hot and then Jones shot lights out in the second half (6-9) and continued to get to the free throw line.
What’s been really maddening, though, has been the offense. In the stretch where Pitt has gone 2-3, the perimeter shooting has been spotty to abysmal. Teams have adjusted and are playing a lot tighter outside. Willing to take a chance on letting Wanamaker, Brown and (when healthy) Dixon get past them to the basket.
The reason, obviously is to limit Ashton Gibbs. It has worked very well. He’s getting few open looks and is being guarded tightly at all turns. This has frustrated him and has him rushing his shots at times even when he does get free. The result is a major slump.
The offense’s problems start with sophomore guard Ashton Gibbs, Pitt’s leading scorer. He averaged 20 points and shot 51 percent from the field (28 for 55) in the first five games. In the past four he is averaging 14 per game while shooting 30 percent (16 for 55) from the field.
“He’s just going to have to be patient and let things come to him and we’re going to have execute better to get him shots,” Dixon said. “I think he’s taking pretty good shots. He needs to get to the free-throw line more. Those are things that get you out of slumps. It’s good to get those free throws and get a feel of the ball going through the basket.”
He’s not patient, and that means he is not getting any contact. Excluding the Seton Hall game, he’s had 10 FTAs in the other 4 games. To be fair, Gibbs has had one other shooting slump almost as bad this season — a 29-91 (32%) and 13-48 (27%) shooting slump over six games. That was from the Texas game through Kent St. Not so coincidentally, Pitt lost 2 games, had to go to double-OT to beat Duquesne, and included that 47-32 thriller over New Hampshire.
The other reason teams are playing so tightly and aggressively outside, is little fear inside. After his big game against Louisville, Nasir Robinson disappeared on the offense. He only had limited chances agianst G-town and Seton Hall. When Pitt made a concerted effort the last two games to focus on getting the ball inside on offense and giving him opportunities, however, Robinson has gone back to struggling — 2-13 in the last two games.
With Robinson struggling and Gilbert Brown having career highs in scoring vs. G-town and then topping that against USF, there are the renewed cries to start Brown.
This might be acceptable except that Gilbert Brown plays the same position as Robinson and Brown just might be Pitt’s best player. A struggling team can’t afford to have its best player coming off the bench.
Brown, who did not become eligible until January, scored 25 against South Florida, 20 against Georgetown and 17 against Cincinnati. On a team that has been falling behind early too often, Brown needs to be in the starting lineup.
I’m not sold. While Brown and Robinson play the same position according to the depth chart, they do not play it the same way. Brown is given more room to play the perimeter on both ends. Robinson is much more of the inside presence — even undersized.
Take Robinson out of the starting lineup and the game immediately begins with all the interior defensive weight on Gary McGhee’s shoulders. Given the struggles of Dante Taylor you are risking getting McGhee in very early foul trouble and making Pitt’s offense even more of a perimeter game.
To say nothing of rebounding. USF had a very smart, simple strategy for dealing with Pitt sending so many players inside to fight for rebound. Tapping the ball. Their bigs, rather than try to snare it or fight for it, more often than not merely tapped the ball outside. Getting it back to open guards who could reset the offense.
Then there is the lack of depth on the bench — especially if you move Gilbert Brown to the starting line-up. With Jermaine Dixon day-to-day, Travon Woodall had a chance.
“Travon is a key for us,” Jamie Dixon said. “I said after the Seton Hall game that we need him to play more. He has to continue to improve and not be a freshman. That’s what we’ve talked about. He doesn’t have to score a lot. He doesn’t have to have big numbers. He just has to defend, give us some minutes and run some offense. I think [Thursday] he did a better job of that. That was good for us. Obviously, with Jermaine’s situation it was even more important.”
Dixon was asked Friday whether Woodall was the type of player who needed more minutes to play well. Dixon did not dispute the theory, but he said he has coached players over the years who have made the most of limited minutes as well.
“That’s the argument everyone makes,” Dixon said. “He just needs to play well. Either way, he needs to play well. He needs to do what we need him to do. He doesn’t need to put up big numbers. He just has to help us win games.”
Unfortunately he wasn’t able to step-up. He started, but played only 17 minutes vs. USF. He only took 1 shot and while he only had one turnover, he had no assists. He was overmatched trying to defend any of USF’s guards.
Hopefully Jermaine Dixon will be back in the line-up tomorrow, WVU will continue to play inconsistent ball, and Pitt will play-up to the competition.
