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October 8, 2009

Predict the Score: UConn-Pitt

Filed under: Football,Uncategorized — Chas @ 1:43 pm

It’s time once more.

Predict the final score of the UConn-Pitt game and get a free “Baldwin for Heisman” t-shirt. Courtesy of PittsburghSteelRocks.com.

There is some wiggle room for a +/- 3 points from the actual score if no one hits the exact numbers.

Link Dump: That’s Coverage?

Filed under: Football,Opponent(s) — Chas @ 11:37 am

Time to clear the backlog of links.

Hat tip to BDuBB for noting the coverage map for ABC on Saturday’s games. Judging by the two small patches around Connecticut and Western Pennsylvania (and a little bit of WV), that the UConn-Pitt game — well it sucks. Not even New York, NJ or any other Big East markets — only 3% of the country.

But in an effort to keep things confusing, there is a second map below showing the distribution of standard definition signals that put the UConn-Pitt game in the Eastern half of the US. Just glad I’m going to the game so I don’t have to think too much about it.

I believe a couple people have noted that the loss of Saddler on returns is a big deal. I have to agree. The field position has been a huge issue for putting Pitt’s offense in great field position. The stats bear that out.

Pitt is tied with USF for 2nd in the Big East for scoring offense. Pitt’s total offense, though, is only a distant 4th. While Pitt’s numbers in returns don’t look good, I would argue that’s because the returns have been deep, but not broken off for ones to the house. If you check out the numbers on Pitt in the redzone, the Panthers are second to only UConn, but Pitt has had the most opportunities and converted the most (23-25). Part of it has to do with the schizo nature of Pitt’s offense through the first 4 games where the offense thrived in the first half with drives and stagnated quickly in the second half.

Heck, the total defense is only 6th. It’s definitely been a bend-but-don’t break kind of defense so far this year. The special teams defense, though, has been great.

UConn better not try and change things up by throwing a lot and trying some sort of spread offense. I’m not sure Pitt would be prepared for it.

“Our team relishes buckling up the chin strap, and hitting somebody in the mouth,” Pitt offensive coordinator Frank Cignetti said Wednesday. “This is Pittsburgh, and it’s going to be that kind of football game.”

Does anyone think Pitt might be bluffing about offense?

Pitt fullback Henry Hynoski and right tackle Lucas Nix glanced at the statistics sheet that lists Connecticut ranking No. 4 nationally in defense and No. 8 against the run. They’ve watched game tapes that show the Huskies repeatedly putting eight defenders along the line of scrimmage.

This would appear to be a game in which Pitt’s best strategy might be to have Bill Stull target tight end Dorin Dickerson and wide receiver Jonathan Baldwin downfield against a secondary that may have fewer defenders.

Uhh, no.

The Panthers (4-1, 1-0 in Big East) believe the Huskies (3-1, 0-0) are daring them to run the ball, and they apparently plan to do exactly that on Saturday.

“Hopefully, this game will include a lot of us trying to jam the ball right down their throats,” Nix said. “We might have a couple of passes to loosen them up, but basically we’re going to have to pound the ball to be successful against them. They’re ranked in the top five, so it should be a good contest for us to go out there and see what we can do against them.”

Hynoski was the lead blocker on numerous plays as freshmen Dion Lewis (87 yards) and Ray Graham (75 yards) each had productive games during a 35-10 victory at Louisville on Friday. Hynoski sees no reason to change, even though Ohio, Rhode Island and Baylor had trouble running against UConn.

“I love games where we just grind it out and just pound the ball,” Hynoski said. “That’s my favorite thing to do. I’ve done that my whole life in football, so I’m really looking forward to this week.”

The theme is the collision of two teams that want to play defense and run the ball. Forget the reality that Pitt’s defense has been inconsistent and the offense has been balanced.

You know, if Pitt is unsure about their chances of making a 40+ yard FG early (like in the Louisville), then why should they be confident late? Because Coach Wannstedt says so, I guess.

Wannstedt said that 40- to 50-yard field goals could be kicked by freshman Kevin Harper, who has a stronger leg than Hutchins, but Harper was not as accurate as he needs to be.

That is why Hutchins ultimately won the job.

“Harper has the strong leg and, if we needed him to kick a long field goal to win a game, he’d kick it,” Wannstedt said. “I have no reservations putting him in there and he can kick a 55-yarder.”

Or is it at that point you have no choice. Maybe try and give him some confidence with a slightly less pressured situation first. Or is that just silly?

Pitt’s defense was glad to get Adam Gunn back to direct the defense from MLB.

While UConn welcomes back Scott Lutrus at linebacker — as he’s been cleared to practice and moved to probable.

They also have more depth at safety than they did to start the season with Aaron Bagsby back from a suspension for unknown reasons.

The same day I wrote something about the use of the running backs, there was an article about how Ray Graham shined in the Louisville game. And that RB Coach Dave Walker pushed for his playing time.

“I’ve never been a split-time kind of coach,” Wannstedt said after Pitt’s 35-10 win at Louisville. “But I think because they are both young kids, it helps that they are learning, so we’re going to play them both.”

Wannstedt and running backs coach David Walker talked prior to the game about getting Graham more touches. Admittedly, Wannstedt had his doubts, mostly because he wasn’t sure how Graham would react before a vociferous road crowd.

“I’m just nervous about playing a freshman with all the noise and the crowd,” Wannstedt said. “The experience Ray got, I feel like now we have two backs we can play at anytime.”

UConn, on the other hand has had no problem this year splitting carries with senior Andre Dixon and sophomore Jordan Todman.

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