The majority of mock drafts, for whatever they are worth, have lately shown LeSean McCoy slipping behind UConn’s Donald Brown and out of the the first round of the upcoming NFL Draft somewhere into the 2nd. Essentially, the 4th best running back in the draft.

1. Chris Wells, OSU
2. Knowshon Moreno, Georgia
3. Donald Brown, UConn
4. LeSean McCoy, Pitt
5. Shonn Greene, Iowa

Questions have arisen regarding his durability and size to be a feature back. Being sick before the combine and limited in what he could do, combined with a less than stellar pro day at Pitt have done damage to his stock.  At this point, a best case scenario would be a team trades up early in the second round to grab him.

So the question becomes whether he made a mistake by going into the NFL Draft this year? Would he have been better served by playing one more season at Pitt?

• DeMarco Murray, Oklahoma
• Jahvid Best, Cal
• Kendall Hunter, OK St.
• Noel Devine, WVU

These are some of the juniors this year that would have competed with McCoy as one of the top junior RBs in college for 2009. Odds are McCoy would have still been considered the 3d best or so RB in that group, and at risk of slipping. He might have stayed in the first round, but I really doubt he would have been a top-15 pick.

Running backs have lost some of their elite value in the NFL Draft. Teams are more willing to gamble on later round picks and even go with free agent signees. Some of it is that aside from a handful of elite backs, the difference seems smaller than ever. The other factor is the increased use of running back  committees. Not relying on just one back.

I have a hard time saying McCoy has made a mistake. Given the workload, injuries from high school and limited shelf life makes it a situation where going a little sooner is better than later.

Despite his impressive production, entering the draft as a sophomore (three years removed from high school) was still deemed a risk. But so is another year of taking hits with a heavy workload.

“This game, at our position, you’re only allowed a certain amount of hits and that’s it,” he said. “You’ve got to make sure you take enough hits and get out and go to the pros and do something you’ve always wanted to do since you were a little boy.”

Making even premature pre-pre-season predictions of basketball top-25s are no more than rough drafts,  until after the deadline for withdrawing from the NBA draft. At which time, they at least have some basis.

Most exclude Pitt at this point. Not surprising given what Pitt has lost from the starting line-up. As Andy Katz summerized:

The hardest teams to figure out were Pitt and Connecticut. The Panthers will be good, but losing seniors Levance Fields, Sam Young, Tyrell Biggs and now DeJuan Blair makes it hard to predict how good the Panthers will be early in the season. The recruiting was strong, and the rebuilding will begin in earnest. The Huskies are expected to lose Hasheem Thabeet to go along with the departure of seniors A.J. Price, Jeff Adrien and Craig Austrie. Stanley Robinson could declare, too, and stay in the draft. That would leave Kemba Walker and the return of a healthy Jerome Dyson on the perimeter as the most productive returning players. The gaping hole inside made it hard to be sold on the Huskies — yet.

That is not absurd thinking. Putting Pitt in a pre-season top-25 would be highly speculative. Any team that loses its top 3 scorers and minutes played, leading rebounder, leading assist guy would be expected to be on the outside. Pitt has a top-25 recruiting class coming in, but objectively looking at the players remaining as well makes it very speculative as to what kind of jump each will make.

So, I was stunned when I actually saw Pitt in the top-25 of any rankings.

11. Pitt. DeJuan Blair is gone. But the Panthers’ frontcourt remains imposing with Dante Taylor.

That seems a bit high. Just a sign of what kind of respect Pitt and Coach Jamie Dixon has earned with the sustained performance over this decade regardless of the players.