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March 31, 2009

Blair’s Honors and Choices

Filed under: Basketball,Draft,Honors,Players — Chas @ 10:50 am

Congrats to DeJuan Blair for making the AP All-American 1st team.

The AP honor is the fourth first-team All-American honor for Blair, who also was recognized by Sporting News, Sports Illustrated and the United States Basketball Writers Association earlier this month.

“It’s cool; it’s a beautiful honor,” Blair said last night, two days after the Panthers were knocked out of the NCAA tournament by Villanova. “I don’t think anyone thought this was possible at the beginning of the season. I wasn’t even named [honorable mention] all-Big East.”

Blair finished third in the AP voting with 294 votes behind Oklahoma’s Blake Griffin (335) and North Carolina’s (304). Arizona State’s James Harden and Davidson’s Stephen Curry also were named to the first team.

“That group is an excellent group,” Blair said. “It could have been a lot of people on that list, too. Fortunately, I got that spot. It’s an honor to be on there with them. All of those guys lived up to the hype. I sneaked up there on a lot of people.”

It’s been a whirlwind few weeks for Blair, who also was named Big East Conference co-player of the year. He also is finalist for the Naismith Player of the Year Award, and was invited to Detroit this weekend for that presentation. He also is a finalist for the Wooden Award as well as the USBWA Oscar Robertson Player of the Year Award.

Well-earned and well-deserved. The article indicated something that should surprise no one. That Blair will at least go through the NBA pre-draft process.

I know there is some debate over whether Blair should turn pro or not. I do not, however, think that there is any debate that he should at least go through the process to see where might go in the draft and what he needs to improve.

I know the mock drafts to this point have him as a outside of being a lottery pick, but definitely a 1st round pick.  I also know the mock drafts pre-workouts are of some questionable value. That said, if he comes out of the workouts in a similar spot,  I don’t see how he doesn’t go pro.

As much as I would love for him to return, I fall into the camp that expects him to and thinks he should go pro. Blair benefits from the success of Detroit Piston’s Jason Maxiell not to mention Paul Millsap of the Utah Jazz. The Pistons took the undersized PF late in the first round of the ’05 draft (to the surprise of many who considered him a late 2nd rounder). He has become a vital bench player with energy who gets rebounds and plays inside despite his size.

Would Blair be able to improve on some parts of his game if he returns? Certainly. Of course, Blair has a great work ethic, so I would expect that he would do plenty to improve his game regardless.

The other aspect, is that while he might be able to improve his game with another year, that would not necessarily improve his draft status. This is considered a rather weak draft. I mean, that B.J. Mullens could be considered a first round pick (I know, 7’0″) after showing very little in the way of, um, skill should speak volumes about the draft this year.

Finally, with his past history of knee problems, he needs to consider the future. Given he plays inside, shown that he runs the court real well and his lack of natural height; a knee injury would cripple his future. Forget the NCAA insurance policies. That still doesn’t match the guarantee of a 1st round contract regardless of whether it is lottery or not.





The paragraph regarding the NCAA insurance policy not matching the amount of the first-round guaranteed contracts is incorrect. First, the NCAA insurance contract would be tax-free to the injurred player. The maximum policy is around $3 million. Assuming agent’s commissions, escrow and taxes, the NBA contract would have to be worth between $8-10 million before it equals the maximum NCAA insurance policy. Second, where a player is drafted in the first round is extremely important. For example, in the 2005 draft the #1 pick (Andrew Bogut) signed a contract guaranteeing $3.61 million per year for the first 2 years with team options on the third and fourth year. The #14 pick (Rashad McCants) was guaranteed $1.28 million for years 1 and 2 with team options for year 3 and 4. Assume both players are picked up for the life of the contract and the difference is a staggering $9.36 million ($14.48 million for #1 and $5.12 million for #14). The scale continues for the entire first round of the draft.

If Blair cannot get into the top-15 of the draft, then he has a serious decision. Does he believe an extra year will put him in the top-15 or is his stock already as high as it will be? I don’t know. However, to say he should definitely leave is quite presumptious. Injury should not be a huge concern because the NCAA insurance policy will definitely cover the value of his first NBA contract. If he is projected to be between pick #20-30, then the decision becomes even cloudier. For example, the #25 pick in the 2008 draft was guaranteed $4.59 million if he was picked up for all 4 years. The #25 pick was 100% guaranteed $1.80 million for the first 2 years with options on year 3 and 4. Year 4’s option results in a huge 80% pay raise, which may or may not occur.

Good luck to him either way. If he leaves, then I want him to be chosen in the lottery.

Comment by omar 03.31.09 @ 11:28 am

Thanks for the insight Omar.

I’m pretty confident that Blair is going through the process with an open mind and truly going to evaluate his options. I think the case for him to go is a strong one, obviously we’d all love to have him back next season, but nobody should be disappointed if ends up leaving. If he goes, I’d love to see him sneak his way into the lottery. Would be great for DeJuan, his family and Pitt basketball.

Comment by TJ 03.31.09 @ 11:39 am

Hopefully he gets advice from someone like Cindrich not an agent who is going to look at making a fast buck and tell him none of the info that Omar has listed.

Comment by Jim 03.31.09 @ 12:00 pm

FWIW, I believe most experts now have Shady in the 2nd round … wonder if he has 2nd thoughts.

However, it is probably not a fair comparison in that Blair is projected to go higher than Shady ever was.

While I don’t think it is a given the DeJuan goes, I would be very surprised if he stays.

On the other hand, we could be Memphis fans. If Calipari oes to UK, he is supposed to bring his top-ranked recruits with him …. not sure if that includes Darnell Dodson. I do assume that he brings O Antigua with him

Comment by w bill 03.31.09 @ 12:43 pm

Exactly TJ. If he gets drafted in the lottery, it is a homerun for him, Pitt and us as fans. One of the easiest ways to recruit is to point out how many players you have sent to the professional ranks recently. A lottery pick in this years draft would do wonders for future recruiting. It would be even better this year because Sam Young will almost certainly be drafted in the first round (coming back really helped him). Two players picked in the first round of the same draft is a big, big deal for Pitt. Especially considering Pitt hasn’t had a first round pick for 10 years.

My original post was simply trying to articulate that draft position is extremely important. If Blair is considered a mid-to-late first round pick, then coming back to Pitt and improving his condition and face-up game could really help his draft status. Look what it did for Sean May and Shelden Williams. Both were drafted in the lottery after their junior years. Both were similar players to Blair. Really there is no wrong decision. Dejuan is blessed to have the opportunity to contemplate forgoing college and entering the draft and us fans were given two exceptional seasons watching him play.

Comment by omar 03.31.09 @ 1:16 pm

W bill – Doesn’t Memphis have to release recruits from their LOI before they could follow Calipari to KY? I know OK and Indiana released some guys around the whole Sampson debacle but you have to think that Memphis would be quick to get a new coach and let him take a shot at keeping the recruits. Also, could they release them from their LOI with conditions on where they cannot go (e.g. another ConfUSA school or KY)?

Comment by CalvinHobbes 03.31.09 @ 1:59 pm

blair should probably turn pro for a couple of reasons. first, as mentioned in the post, this is a relatively weak draft class which benefits blair. i doubt he’ll be considered a top 15 pick but he’ll almost certainly be a first rounder. second, i’m not sure his stock will be as high as it is this year. if blair returns to pitt next season and shows that he can’t consistently hit 10-15 footers or is still at a high weight then the potential that an nba team could develop him into a pf would be diminished. right now he still maintains an extremely high upside but each season after this year has the potential to exponentially diminish his stock.

of course blair could return and show that he’s an nba ready pf but would that boost him to a lottery pick? possibly but i think its pretty clear that the risk of exposing himself is too great a risk. obviously all of this ignores a desire blair might have to keep playing at pitt because he wants to (which would be nice) but i have to think he’s going to be advised to turn pro.

Comment by kj 03.31.09 @ 2:20 pm

CalvinHobbes,
I think you’re correct…from a PR standpoint though I’m not really sure if Memphis even has the option of not releasing these kids or releasing with conditions. They chose Memphis b/c of the coach who was going to be there and I don’t see how Memphis, as an academic institution that is supposed to have the kid’s best interests in mind, could not let these kids out of their LOI’s.

Comment by TJ 03.31.09 @ 2:23 pm

Calvin — Demarcus Cousins hasn’t signed a LOI yet, and Xavier Henry has a clause in his LOI that says if Calipari leaves he has no obligation to stay with Memphis.. I would assume the other guys are stuck. I would assume the other guys weren’t given the same option to leave as Henry was, so I imagine they are stuck..

What happened with Dodson and Pitt? I remember reading some bogus rule that wouldn’t allow him come to Pitt but don’t remember what it was.

Comment by stache 03.31.09 @ 2:24 pm

Because he enrolled in the school and did not qualify he isn’t allowed to re-enroll at Pitt, so he had to look elsewhere.

Comment by Ontario Lett's Go Pitt 03.31.09 @ 2:28 pm

Lets face it, Shady left for one reason: the threat of Bill Stull or Pat Bostick as the teams QB in 2009.

I wish DeJuan well in whatever he does, he was fun to watch and you can tell he enjoyed every second on the court playing the game he loves.

Comment by Rex 03.31.09 @ 2:58 pm

Blair is gone. He’d be stupid not to go, and the scare against OSU probably made his decision a whole lot easier.

This will be the first time in a few years i watch the NBA draft…..cant wait to see sam and blair get chosen….great kids!

Comment by schoey 03.31.09 @ 3:26 pm

Yes, Blair would probably benefit from more seasoning – but he will get that in the NBA against NBA competition where they will have him work on his “pro game” weaknesses. If he stays in school, he would continue to play with his back usually to the basket and would not really improve to the degree that he would in the NBA.

He needs to get while the getting is good. As far as draft position, that is not an exact science and no one could ever really say for sure that he would be a top 15 pick in any given year.

Another factor is that the earlier he enters the NBA the earlier he can become a free agent and let his pro performance determine his true market value.

Comment by Chuck Morris 03.31.09 @ 3:29 pm

just posted on PSI web site:

It seems if Cal takes the UK job the players that committed at Memphis will be released from their commitment, only some will be able to follow Calipari to UK. The odd man out looks to be JUCU Power Forward Will Coleman who picked and signed with Memphis over Pitt in August. Pitt was is only other offer. He played one year at Miami Dade County College and would have 3 years remaining. He is 6″9, 230. Here are some more tidbits about him:

Miami Dade coach Matt Eisele:
“There is not a big in the country that runs the floor how he does. And there is not a big in the country that is as athletic as he is, either. He’s an absolute freak.”

Coleman, a 6-foot-9 post, is one of the most explosive power forwards in the junior college ranks.

Averaged 16/16 last season

Comment by w bill 03.31.09 @ 4:21 pm

So Coleman takes Blair’s scholly if Blair goes?

Comment by maz. 03.31.09 @ 4:23 pm

In terms of Coleman, the answer might not be so clear. In addition to the fact that other schools might express interest now that did not last summer, the timing of Blair’s decision might be of paramount importance also. Pitt cannot offer a scholarship until one frees up, and Blair might not make a final decision until June. Coleman, assuming he is released, might not want to wait that long.

Comment by Pantherman13 03.31.09 @ 4:33 pm

First of all, no way in hell would Memphis let Coleman leave. With all of their other recruits leaving, they need all the players they can get. Secondly, Darnell Dodson is Coleman’s best friend and there is no reason to think he would leave to come to Pitt.

Comment by Mark 03.31.09 @ 5:41 pm

it’s official — Calipari has accepted UK offer. Now let’s see how the dominoes fall — recruits and coaches

Comment by w bill 03.31.09 @ 6:45 pm

Mark: Where are you coming up with this? Has there EVER been a school to not let recruits leave who were signed by the previous coach? They would get no recruits ever again if that happened.

Comment by maz. 03.31.09 @ 7:00 pm

Agreed Maz, they may not want to let them out and it may hurt the program, but its a PR disaster for the school and would make Memphis look really bad if they didn’t let them out in this scenario.

Comment by TJ 03.31.09 @ 7:27 pm

I kinda of wish that Dixon would come out and say if he is staying at PITT…atleast give some sort of hint so all the good coaches dont pass PITT by…imagine if Calipari would come home and bring the recruits that he brings, well just wishful thinking, huh…But DIXON is as good as gone…he aint gonna want to rebuild at PITT when he could rebuild at ARIZONA!!!

Comment by jay 03.31.09 @ 7:55 pm

I dont think Dixon is leaving, but for the fun of it, who would be on the list for possible replacement? I would think Sean Miller, Mike Rice, and I’d love to see the coach from Missouri be interested. Poster before was correct though. If something does happen , I hope it occurs fast before the dominoes start to fall.

Comment by Z-boy 03.31.09 @ 8:32 pm

maz, VERY rarely do they let kids out of their scholarships. The schools say that the kid committed to the school, not the coach, and they will not let them out of it. That’s a FACT.

Comment by Mark 03.31.09 @ 9:01 pm

Dixon is good as gone? not true at all. Also, I’m not sure that its true that schools rarely let kids off scholarships. It was a huge deal in the media when Arizona wouldn’t release Jeff Withey from his scholarship. Such a big deal that they eventually released him.

Comment by Ontario Lett's Go Pitt 03.31.09 @ 9:16 pm

very good information / discussion on the recent posts …. I don’t understand the Dixon is as good as gone; haven’t read or heard anything unless this coming from a cynical poster.

Don’t get me wrong – it is certainly a possibility that Arizona would attract Dixon, however, I’m not aware of any proof (or speculation.)

Comment by w bill 03.31.09 @ 10:03 pm

from the Philly inquirer “A league source said today that Pitt running back LeSean McCoy will make a pre-draft visit with the Eagles.”

Comment by Ira 03.31.09 @ 10:10 pm

Comment by dan 03.31.09 @ 11:00 pm

“Dixon is as good as gone”, “He ain’t gonna wanna rebuild at Pitt when he can rebuild at Arizona”…What are you talking about? There is nothing to “rebuild” at Pitt. Sure we may take a step back next year and not have the hype we did this year, but the program is no longer in such a state of disrepair that it needs rebuilding. It hasn’t been for about 8 years now. I don’t think Dixon is going anywhere any time soon.

Those two ridiculous statements were preceded by another, Jay “imagine if Calipari would come home and bring all those recruits with him…wishful thinking”. Maybe wishful thinking for you. The last thing we need is that media whore and sleezebag Calipari to bring his act back to Pittsburgh. Yea, he can coach and recruit (who knows how many shady under the table deals he is making though). Some of you are thinking back on his stint at Pitt and the talent he brought in which is fine, but we don’t need that anymore. We have a CLEAN, CLASSY program that is going to be consistently competitive. There is nothing that indicates we’ve done things any way but the RIGHT way. We play a disciplined, smart and physical brand of basketball that is fun to watch. Not to mention, Jamie Dixon is one of the best coaches in the country. He is staying, hopefully for the long haul, and if he ever leaves the last thing we need is an egotistical slimebag like Calipari setting our program back. ..Look what he did to Memphis.

Comment by TJ 04.01.09 @ 8:07 am

…yes, I know he took them to the Final Four and was a few free throws away from a National Championship, but that program is going to go from contending for a championship to becoming completely irrelevant over night because of Calipari’s decision to bolt to UK.

Comment by TJ 04.01.09 @ 8:11 am

Mark: Sorry, was hoping you had some actual facts. Every team in the nation lets players out of their commitments when coaches leave. Examples: Scottie Reynolds and the rest of Kelvin Sampson’s class at Oklahoma, Marquette’s recruits when Crean left, Indiana’s entire team when Sampson was fired, Indiana’s entire team when Davis was fired, et cetera. That’s why Robert Vaden was at UAB, for instance. Its why all everyone is talking about is where Memphis’ players will go.

Comment by maz. 04.01.09 @ 11:08 am

The only reasons those players were released was because the new coach didn’t want them. As for everybody wondering where Memphis recruits are going, they are wondering about the ones that had an agreement with Memphis prior to signing. Coleman didn’t have such an agreement. Memphis needs players. They won’t release him unless the coach they bring in doesn’t want him.

Comment by Mark 04.01.09 @ 12:44 pm

I disagree with that assertion. If they don’t release these kids then they might end up dealing with a bunch of kids who end up wanting to transfer. Memphis is in a tough spot now and I think we’ll see anyone who wants to be released allowed to.

Comment by TJ 04.01.09 @ 12:51 pm

EVERY SCHOOL releases kids, or they’d never get kids to sign. Why is this hard for you? Its a FACT. Usually the release states the kid cannot go within the conference, and sometimes to traditional rivals. But they ALWAYS release any kid that wants to leave as a result of a coaching change.

Comment by maz. 04.01.09 @ 4:38 pm

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