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January 21, 2005

Trepidation Not Anticipation

Filed under: Uncategorized — Chas @ 4:50 pm

As a fan, one of the more troubling thing about Pitt’s January slide is the fact that it has turned this game — a game I marked early as a can’t miss, send the wife and child somewhere, anywhere so I can focus fully on it — from one I was eagerly anticipating. Excited about the possibilities. Ready for a wild game. Now it is one I have a sense of dread over. Worried about how bad Pitt could end up looking. Scared they are going to be run out of the joint on the ESPN marquee game. That’s frustrating. This is the big game of the weekend, and everyone has it noted. From Greg Doyel at Sportsline.

No. 21 Pittsburgh at No. 16 UConn: Once one of the Big East’s marquee games, this is more a battle for survival, especially for Pittsburgh (12-3, 2-2), which has played five consecutive unranked teams and lost to three of them — and barely beat Rutgers and Seton Hall in between. The situation isn’t nearly as dire for emerging superstar Charlie Villanueva and UConn (11-3, 3-1), though the Huskies could fall two losses behind Boston College and Syracuse in the league standings with a slip here.

He is dead right for Pitt. Seth Davis at SI.com sees a UConn win:

It’s unusual to see at matchup of two teams whose strengths and weaknesses are so similar. Both squads use their big men to anchor their offense and defense. Both have lots of talent but limited experience on the perimeter. Their guards can make plays but are too loose with the ball. And neither squad is as good defensively as it was last year, but both have exciting freshmen who can score points in a hurry.

Unfortunately for Pittsburgh, the Huskies’ strengths are stronger than the Panthers’, and their weaknesses are not as weak. Yes, Pitt has a muscular, studly duo inside in Chevon Troutman and Chris Taft, but Taft has been inconsistent this season. They are sure to be outmatched by UConn’s Josh Boone and Charlie Villanueva, who once again have this team leading the nation in blocks. (Villanueva, incidentally, has broken out of his slump the past few weeks, mostly because he figured out he should use his inside skills to set up his outside game, instead of vice versa.) UConn has struggled while breaking in Marcus Williams (and his freshman replacement, Antonio Kellogg) at the point, but Pitt is actually having more trouble at that position as Carl Krauser has committed 26 turnovers in four Big East games — including eight in Wednesday’s loss at St. John’s. And while the Panthers have every reason to be excited that freshman guard Ronald Ramon has emerged as a scoring threat (his 21 points saved them in a win at Rutgers), he is no Rudy Gay. No freshman is.

The fact is, Pittsburgh has, to no one’s surprise, had a hard time replacing the defensive expertise and toughness of graduated guards Julius Page and Jaron Brown, who combined to start more than 200 games in their careers. How else to explain why Darryl Hill of St. John’s was able to light up the Panthers for 26 points? If Anderson and Brown are hoping to recapture their shooting touch, Pitt represents a good opportunity. Meanwhile, Williams and Kellogg can run the Huskies’ halfcourt offense and transtion game knowing they won’t have to worry too much about facing ball pressure. The same cannot be said for Krauser, Ramon and sophomore guard Antonio Graves.

Pitt’s best chances at winning are to get Boone and/or Villanueva into foul trouble, or have Krauser put in an epic performance. Either is certainly possible, but the more likely scenario is that the sloppy ballhandling will help create a quicker tempo, which in the end will benefit the Huskies. This game, by the way, is being played not in the antiseptic Hartford Civic Center but in Gampel Pavilion on the UConn campus. The scoreboard that hangs over the court is where the similarities between these teams will end.

Seth’s Pick: UConn 72, Pittsburgh 60

Hard to argue right now. Pitt and UConn both had some struggles so far. The difference, was that UConn realized theirs first — the early upset loss to UMass — and Coach Jim Calhoun made started adjusting to his personnel. Now UConn is playing an inside game, not relying on the outside shots. Pitt didn’t realize the problems and then went into some denial over them, and now it could be too late.

Even at ESPN, where they have to hope for a very good game, Jay Bilas breaks down the game and picks UConn (subs. only).

However, this Pitt team has struggled, comparatively, on the defensive end. The Panthers are giving up 44 percent shooting to its Big East opponents, including almost 50 percent to St. John’s in the loss earlier this week. Overall, that ranks in the bottom half of the league, and Pitt’s 3-point defense is even softer (and soft is not a word associated with Pitt Basketball), allowing teams to shoot 40 percent from behind the arc.

Pitt also forces only nine turnovers per game in Big East play, and has to grind you in order to win. Carl Krauser is the Panthers’ best scorer and player, and has been facing more defensive attention than ever. Chevy Troutman and Chris Taft are quality big men, but Troutman is undersized and has to bull his way to the basket.

UConn has the best and most talented frontline in the college game. Josh Boone leads the league in double-doubles, blocked shots, rebounding and field goal percentage. Charlie Villanueva is one of the most improved players in the Big East, and has played his best basketball over the last five games. Rudy Gay is arguably the best freshman big man in the nation, and is the smoothest operator.

Bottom Line: UConn is too strong. At home, the Huskies will be tough to beat. I like UConn in this one.

Still, if there is reason to hope, it is that this has become a rivalry game.

Pittsburgh has the responsibility to maintain its rivalry with Connecticut.

If the Panthers continue their free fall, not just this season, but beyond, then the new rivalry between the two schools will be over almost before it began.

That’s it. Goodbye.

Connecticut’s rivalry date book is pretty full. The Huskies might have room for one more, but it’s up to Pitt to keep that date.

UConn’s primary rival is Syracuse. Connecticut could start getting one going with UMass, according to coach Jim Calhoun, after the way the Minutemen beat the Huskies in Amherst last month. And don’t be surprised if Louisville doesn’t become the new rivalry for the Huskies when the Cardinals join the Big East next season.

When the Huskies got started in the Big East, the rivals for them were Seton Hall and Boston College. Calhoun said they were all trying to climb out of the bottom. None were ready to challenge Syracuse, Georgetown, St. John’s and Villanova at the time.

Connecticut became the power and eventually surpassed everyone, except Syracuse, which genuinely is regarded as an equal. The two schools have won the last two national championships. But the past three seasons, Connecticut has had to get past Pittsburgh. The two teams have met in the last three Big East tournament title games.

Connecticut won in 2002 and 2004. Pittsburgh won in 2003. The overall series the past three seasons is split at 3-3.

A year ago, Pittsburgh was 18-0 when Connecticut beat the Panthers in Hartford. They play Saturday at Gampel Pavilion on Connecticut’s campus, the first time the two teams have met there since 1995.

Calhoun says the rivalry dates back to Dec. 12, 1998, when Ralph Willard was coaching the Panthers and the Huskies won at Pittsburgh. He said it began when Khalid El-Amin stood up on a scorer’s table after the Huskies came back to win and stuff was thrown at him and the Huskies. El-Amin was the recipient of verbal bashing from the fans, too.

I agree with Calhoun as to when the teams really started a bit of a rivalry.

I just hope to be proven wrong on my fears.

Pitt-UConn: The Stand At Storrs

Filed under: Uncategorized — Chas @ 8:13 am

This game is not getting near the attention you would think in both markets. Seems both are distracted by this Patriots-Steelers game on Sunday. No priorities.

Yesterday I said this game starts a stretch that will make or break Pitt’s season. Guess what the theme of a couple articles today are?

“These games coming up will make or break us,” Taft said at a late-night team meeting in a Manhattan hotel. “We have to find a way to win.”

The 21st-ranked Panthers (12-3, 2-2) are in recovery mode after losing three of their past five contests, all in the final minute. They’ll look to regain that elusive winning touch on the road Saturday night against defending national champion Connecticut (11-3, 3-1) at soldout Gampel Pavilion.

Apparently Pitt players are being allowed to talk to the media again.

“We’re 12-3, but we also should be 15-0,” said Taft, who will face a Connecticut front line that Vitale calls the best in the nation. “But we can’t go back in the past and change that. We’ve got games coming up with UConn and Syracuse (a week from Saturday). We have to do whatever we can to win these games.”

There are no outward signs that these Panthers have hit the panic button after losses to Bucknell, Georgetown and St. John’s in the past two-plus weeks. In fact, Dixon and Taft said the team had an inspired practice Thursday. Taft went as far to say that it was the most intense workout of the year.

Wonderful. Another great workout. The thing is, all season they have been talking about how tough things get in practices, but everyone is still waiting to see it translated to 40 minutes in a game.

The prevailing belief among Taft, Ramon and Dixon is the Panthers need to intensify things on the defensive side of the ball. They are nowhere close to meeting the standards they set for themselves in years past, when they typically pulverized the opposition.

On Tuesday, St. John’s shot 48.1 percent from the field to continue an uncharacteristic trend. Six opponents have shot better than 47 percent against the Panthers, something that happened only five times all of last season – in 36 games.

“We have to step up defensively,” Taft said. “That’s been the main part of this program for four years and we’ve got to bring it back. What a great chance to show how well we can play defense against Connecticut.”

That also means you Taft. Taft is talking it, but he has to start delivering on it.

The other article has the same theme. It just tries to be a little more optimistic.

If the Panthers are going to have a chance, they’re going to have to play better defensively than they have the past month.

St. John’s shot 58 percent in the first half of Tuesday’s game and shot 48 percent for the game, the fifth opponent in the past seven games to shoot 45 percent or better.

“We have to step up offensively and especially defensively,” Taft said. “The program has been built around defense. We just have to bring that back. What a great chance to show how much defense you have against UConn.”

This might be an ideal time for Pitt to play Connecticut. The Panthers view the Huskies as their biggest rival, and rivalry games can sometimes jump-start teams going through slumps.

Or it can send them into a complete tailspin.

“I thought we had a very good practice [yesterday],” Dixon said. “We talked about the defensive end, executing on offense. We’re doing a lot of things real well. If you look at the stats, we’re doing well in a lot of areas, but the thing that sticks out is that there’s going to be a lot of close games in the Big East. That hasn’t changed for years and it’s not going to change. We just have to be on the right end of those things.”

Dixon indicated that the Panthers are close to doing just that. While there is the obvious problem of protecting leads, Dixon also pointed to being in so many close games. Remove one bad play from each of the three losses, and Pitt could be undefeated heading into the Connecticut game.

I know. Dixon is a players’ coach. He backs his kids, and he isn’t going to come down on them in the press. And I’m not saying he should. But, this is such a load of crap. It isn’t just one bad play, it’s a bunch in a row. It’s bad decisionmaking and execution. It’s lapses in concentration and focus.

The article above, though, fairly optimistic does not appear to be the actual opinion of Ray Fittipaldo as to whether Pitt will win tomorrow night. In his weekly Q&A, he expects a UConn win in the single digits.

Q: Why is Pitt playing so poorly at the end of games? They can’t maintain leads and seem to make bad decisions at the worst possible time?

FITTIPALDO That, to me, is the biggest mystery of the season. With so many experienced players back from a team that knew how to win close games last season, one would think that this team would simply pick up where last year’s team left off. But they haven’t. And not only are they not winning games late, they’re finding ways to lose games. Everyone on the team need to have more consistency and some members of the team need to show more composure and calm when the game is in the closing moments.

Q: Point guard Carl Krauser is playing playground ball like he did two years ago. He had three charging fouls in the game against Rutgers. Coach Dixon should have sat him for five minutes the next game. What are your thoughts? What is his assist-turnover ratio? It does not appear he is passing the ball like a point guard.

FITTIPALDO Krauser had another poor game against St. John’s. He had eight turnovers, giving him 45 in the last seven games, which is way too many. Krauser had nine turnovers in that Rutgers game and he admitted it was one of the worst games of his career. He came back the following game against Seton Hall and took just four shots from the field. He contributed in other ways, though. He had eight rebounds and six assists to go along with five turnovers, which is still way too much for him. Krauser is not your typical point guard. He led the team in scoring last season and is leading the team in scoring again this season. It is quite obvious that he needs to score for the Panthers to be successful. But he has said recently that he is going to try and distribute the ball more. He did that versus Seton Hall but reverted to his shoot-first mentality against St. John’s, taking 13 shots from the field. I happen to think Krauser is Pitt’s best player, but I do think he needs reigned in sometimes. You asked about his assist-turnover ratio. He has 83 assists and 63 turnovers. Last season, he had 145 assists and 96 turnovers, a much better ratio. Krauser has to get his game in order, or it’s going to be a long season for the Panthers.

I do find his Q&A frustrating, because he doesn’t actually answer about half of the questions. Even for these, he won’t even hazard a speculation.

One of the few positives from the St. John’s loss, was the indvidual play of Levon Kendall off of the bench. Kendall was on the floor when Pitt started coming back in the second half, willing to shoot and rebound.

For UConn, Jay Bilas at ESPN writes on how Calhoun has adapted to the personnel he has this season (as this blog noted from a different article yesterday).

For Calhoun, the 2004-2005 season brings an adjustment to how he wants to play, in order to continue to win at the highest level. It is not better or worse than the way he has taught his teams to play in the past, it is just different, and it speaks well of Calhoun as a coach.

UConn does not have guards in the same mold as in the past. Marcus Williams is a gifted lefty passer and handler, and can score, but he is not the speed merchant his predecessors were. He does not push the break like Khalid El-Amin or Taliek Brown, he passes ahead. He is not a great penetrator; rather, he plays with change of pace. He does not put great pressure on the ball; he has to try and control the handler and funnel the ball into help instead.

Rashad Anderson is not a penetrator or slasher, he is a shooter who has not yet shot it well. While Calhoun may not have the same kind of guards he dreams about, they are still very good, albeit different.

Calhoun, though, also has a frontline the Boston Celtics might like. Josh Boone, Charlie Villanueva, Rudy Gay, Ed Nelson and Hilton Armstrong are all big and strong, and take up a lot of space.

The Huskies now resemble an inside power team, and Calhoun has decided to mold them into being just that. UConn is not as good right now as it will be in March, but when the Huskies get there, look out.

The struggles for Guard Rashad Anderson this season has been a surprising problem for UConn. He has not shot well at all this season. The thing is, he is a shooter, and could snap out of it or just have a good night at any point. Even this weekend.

Anderson said don’t be surprised if he breaks out against Pitt Saturday night. He loves the bright lights and big stage. The setting will be perfect for him with ESPN debuting “College GameDay” at Gampel Pavilion.

“This would be his kind of game; the next three would actually be games that cry out for him,” Calhoun said. “Pitt has been playing a lot of zone, as have West Virginia and Notre Dame.”

Game notes from both teams are out. Pitt‘s is here and this is UConn‘s (PDF). UConn seems to be trying to use an interlocking U and C as its alternative logo. It doesn’t work. The Huskies are UConn not UC. Useless tidbit, unless Pitt pulls an upset, it will fall from the top-25 rankings for the first time in 54 poll weeks. This is actually the first time Pitt will be playing in Storr’s (rather than Hartford) in almost 10 years.

Then there is the circus atmosphere of ESPN covering the game and premiering it’s College Gameday — Basketball. The show will be from inside the arena — it would be a little chilly outside. It will be hosted by Rece Davis along with Chris Fowler, Jay Bilas, Digger Phelps and Dick Vitale. Sadly enough, Vitale will be doing color for the actual game along with Brad Nessler on play-by-play.

Said Phelps: “This is the respect we have, not only for Connecticut and the Big East, but for the Pitt-UConn series, which has been one of the best rivalries the past couple of years. With us being there, I think it just adds to the color that college basketball brings to the table as you build up to the national championship.”

Granted we and they were expecting Pitt and even UConn to be playing better, but at least they can go with the “What’s wrong with Pitt?” storyline.

They are doing 3 shows. It debuts at 11 am, then the pregame show at 8pm and then a wrap-up show at midnight. The fans are being invited to come to the Gampel Pavilion in the morning to help give it a “College GameDay atmosphere.”

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